This is the Corona virus. Daily briefing for Sunday March 8th 2020 I'm Brian McCullough. The number of confirmed Cove it 19 cases in the U. S. Has passed 400. Now, with cases in more than 30 states. Two deaths in Florida are the first confirmed on the East Coast. Northern Italy goes into lock down. Why some testing for the virus is inconsistent and why local governments around the U. S. Are asking for testing. Testing, testing The cruise ship Grand Princess, which has been held off the coast of California for a number of days after 21 people onboard tested positive for Covert 19 will be allowed to disembark in Oakland as early as Monday. On Friday, President Trump had told reporters that his preference was to have the passengers remain onboard the ship,

but that he would let others decide whether to bring them off or not. Quote. I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault, the president told Fox News this morning. HUD Secretary Ben Carson appeared on ABC News is this week and refused to say if a plan had been finalized for the princess passengers. Quoting The Washington Post. When pressed to give details on a plan with imminent implementation, Carson demurred, saying such an announcement should come from Quote one solitary person end quote, presumably Vice President Pence, whom President Trump put in charge of leading the U. S response to the outbreak. Quote. The plan will be in place by that time, but I don't want to preview the plan right now,

Carson said, explaining the plan quote hadn't been fully formulated. End quote. But Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, said in a statement quote. 34 Georgians and additional American citizens from the Eastern United States who are currently on the Grand Princess cruise ship off the California coast will be securely transferred to Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta. End Quote and representative Castro of Texas tweeted that passengers are expected to be quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio that has been a site used for previous quarantines for such cases as those evacuated from China. There are currently 3500 people onboard the Grand Princess. Also, Florida officials on Friday night reported two deaths related to Cove in 19 cases, saying both where people who had traveled internationally. This marks the first deaths confirmed on the east coast of the United States. New York state this morning announced that 105 people in the state had tested positive for the virus, up from 89 the day before. Iran today reported 49 deaths and more than 700 new cases in the past 24 hours.

Iran's flagship airline, Iran Air, is suspending flights to Europe. Argentina has confirmed the first Corona virus death in Latin America. The Associated Press is reporting that the White House overruled health officials who were recommending that elderly and fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines. Quoting The Associated Press, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan as a way of trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation be removed, said the official, who had direct knowledge of the plan. Trump administration officials have since suggested certain people should not consider traveling, but have stopped short of the stronger guidance sought by the CDC. The person, who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity did not have authorization to talk about the matter. The person did not have direct knowledge about why the decision to kill the language was made or who made the call. Administration officials disputed the person's account in a tweet.

The press secretary for vice president Mike Pence, Katie Miller, said that quote it was never a recommendation to the task force. End quote and called the AP story quote, Complete fiction End quote By far, the biggest headlines of the weekend have been coming from Italy. Yesterday, Italy said the number of confirmed cases in the country had risen by 1000 people in a single 24 hour period to a total of 5883. That number of confirmed cases was 219 a few weeks ago. In the worst affected Italian region, lumber T, the death toll today reached 257 up from 154 the day before. 85% of Italy's confirmed cases and 92% of the confirmed deaths so far have been in the lumber t region. Likely these numbers contributed to the decision by the Italian government to essentially locked down lumber t restricting movement inside that area, much as Chinese authorities did in the area around Wuhan, where the virus seemingly originated,

Quoting The New York Times. We are facing an emergency, a national emergency, prime minister just epi, Conti said in announcing the government decree in a news conference after 2 a.m. The move is tantamount to sacrificing the Italian economy in the short term to save it from the ravages of the virus. In the long term, the measures will turn stretches of Italy's wealthy north, including the economic and cultural capital of Milan and landmark tourist destinations such as Venice into quarantine red zones until at least April 3rd. They will prevent the free movement of roughly 16 million people. End quote as mentioned there, there will apparently be three separate sealed off zones, one around Milan, the other to the east, including Venice and the third going south, including the small nation state of San Marino. The restrictions,

as mentioned, are to remain in place at least until April 3rd. Some rail connections will be suspended between Milan and Rome. Public events will be canceled, including funerals. Schools remain closed. The closure of museums and theaters will be extended nationwide. Restaurants and bars have are allowed to remain open so long as people remain one meter apart. Police and armed forces will patrol the train stations and roads, accessing the 14 provinces in lock down. People inside the lock down area will only be able to leave for emergency reasons and face significant fines or up to three months in jail if they break quarantine. The very leaking of the lock down plans might have had a short term counterproductive effects. Quoting the Guardian, thousands crowded train stations and lumber tea or jumped into their cars after details of a draft decree banning people from leaving or entering the region were revealed on Saturday afternoon. On Sunday morning, dozens of police officers and medics wearing masks and has Matt suits waited and Salerno in companion a four passengers who had boarded overnight trains from Liberty.

The passengers will be registered and obliged to self quarantine as fears mount over the virus is spread in the south. Quote. What happened with the news leak has caused many people to try to escape, causing the opposite effect of what the decree is trying to achieve, said Roberto Baroni, a professor of microbiology and virology at the Vita Salut San Rafael University in Milan. Quote unfortunately, some of those who fled will be infected with the disease. End quote Rick Wright is a Californian who was on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that had a huge virus outbreak on it. After being evacuated from that ship, he was quarantined at Travis Air Force Base and is currently self isolating at home. The thing is, right has taken seven Corona virus tests over the past two weeks, and it's gotten different results. He's tested negative than the next day, positive and then a few days later,

negative, then inconclusive. In fact, tests he took just last week were both positive and negative, and it turns out he's not alone. A woman evacuated from Wuhan, China, was released from quarantine at Lackland Air Force Base because she tested negative twice on Lee Tohave. A subsequent tests come back positive, so she's now back in quarantine, quoting the San Francisco Chronicle. Experts say the conflicting results are probably not because of the test itself is inaccurate, but rather because the virus can sometimes appear stronger in a specimen from one part of the body, like the lower respiratory tract, then in a specimen from another part of the body, like the nose or throat,

or vice versa. The Corona virus test can be done using a sample from the nose, throat or Flem coughed up from the lungs. Quote. There might be extreme virus in one part of the body, but not the other because of the way the disease is progressing in that individual, said Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious disease at the Association of Public Health Laboratories. Because it is a new virus and a new test, medical experts are still trying to determine when exactly is the best time to start testing people and how often subsequent tests should be done. End quote. Apparently, the term here is virus shedding, which is win viruses, replicate and cells and then become detectable via lab tests that happens at different times as well. A person could have contracted the virus,

but be at such an early stage that it doesn't show up on testing yet, or depending on inflammation or the strength of a person's personal immune system or even the amount of virus you get e the dosage, if you will, that you took in of the virus. That could all lead to fluctuating levels reported in testing as well. South Korea has tested 140,000 people for the Corona virus, according to Business Insider. That number represents more people than have officially been confirmed as having Corona virus worldwide as of at least last week. Quote. The U. S and South Korea announced their first cases of the Corona virus on the same day, January 20th. More than six weeks later, the U. S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1500 people for the virus. South Korea,

meanwhile, has tested about 140,000. The nation is capable of conducting as many as 10,000 tests per day and has built drive through testing clinics that can detect Corona virus cases in just 10 minutes. Officials say the clinics can reduce testing time by 1/3. This quick response has allowed South Korea to detect more than 6000 Corona virus patients, around 35 of whom have died. That means the country's death rate is around 0.6%. End quote now on the one hand that is potentially really good news. The death rate might be lower than we fear. Health officials have said that once more testing is done, they expect the death rate to lower. Why? Because around 80% of cases they believe are mild. Until now, people being tested have tended to be the worst symptomatic and the furthest along. South Korea is basically testing everyone they can.

And yes, it's proving that a lot of people have cove it 19. But mild cases that earlier wouldn't have been tested are being added to the mix. The numbers work out that the more testing you do, the more cases you can confirm even the milder ones. So you're not just catching the worst ones. You're getting a better broader sense of what is actually out there. As Dr Roger Swell. To point it out, as the denominator of a fraction increases, the value of that ratio decreases. It's simple math, but to be clear run of the mill influenza. The yearly flu, according to the CDC, has a historical fatality rate of around 0.1%.

So even at the South Korean Numbers, Cove in 19 is potentially six times worse than the flu. But the reason you want to test widely is that that obviously helps identify carriers of the virus before they can transmit widely, and you can get them quickly into quarantine. Until last Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control here in the U. S. Had only tested people who had recent exposure to a confirmed patient and or had traveled to a country with an outbreak and or required hospitalization. And in fact, that basic math we just spoke about can cut both ways. Let's come back to those numbers for a second. South Korea has tested 140,000 people and has a death rate of 0.6%. The U. S, a far larger country, has tested under 3000 people as of Saturday evening and thus has a mortality rate for confirmed cases of 5%.

5% is higher than the 4% death rate reported in China. As testing numbers increase in the US expect the number of confirmed cases to skyrocket, but then the death rate hopefully could plummet along with what we have seen in South Korea. Now everyone cannot be tested. That's not in dispute. The resource is just aren't there at this point. But the question that a lot of people have been asking this weekend is why aren't we testing more? Why aren't we testing everyone we possibly can as soon as possible, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a press conference recently. Quote. I would test everyone you could test. Quoting The Washington Post as an example, he said if 400 people attended an event at which several people tested positive for Corona virus than he would test everyone there. This criteria runs contrary to the testing guidelines that the CDC had been following. End quote. And so the question is becoming.

Why has that been the case for so long? Why the slow rolling out of testing? Well, apparently, the CDC opted to develop its own test for the Corona virus, a test that would be capable of identifying multiple viruses. The problem was, apparently the initial tests were faulty because of a single ingredient, which led to failed results in half of tests. Quote What happened in the U. S. Is the CDC created and sent out a test to all 50 states and then said Wait hold up. Don't use it, Matthew McCarthy, a hospitalist at wheel Cornell Medicine in New York City, told CNBC last week.

Also hampering things. At first, the CDC was the only place where testing was to be performed. Until states like New York pushed to do, they're testing at their own facilities. Every single test had to be shipped to Atlanta again. Let's consider the fact that the U. S. And South Korea reported their first cases on the same day. And yet in the U. S, testing is still so minuscule. Parts of China have been in lock down for a month, and the point of that lock down was that it could have bought the entire world sometime. To get resource is an order. South Korea clearly did this,

and the U. S. Apparently did not, as a potential example of how this slow to begin testing might be impacting what we're already seeing. One of the reasons Seattle is a hot spot right now for Corona virus cases is because independent scientists set up what is known as a sentinel surveillance program. Basically, researchers last week began analyzing nose and throat swabs collected from hospitals in the region. In other words, by random chance, they just started testing broadly early. The fear is not necessarily that Seattle is the worst hit region in this country. The fear is that we might all be in the same boat as Seattle. It's just that the testing hasn't ramped up in order to show us that yet. This is from The New York Times on Saturday. A total of 71 public laboratories in 47 states and the District of Columbia had the capacity to test for the Corona virus as of Friday afternoon, according to the Association of Public Health Laboratories,

which represents government laboratories around the country. That's up from just eight labs available to process test last Thursday. Quote. We've seen major progress with essentially the lights coming on across the country, said Scott Becker, the association's chief executive. But the delays mean that quote were absolutely a few weeks behind where we should be, he said, adding quote, There is no way you can sugarcoat that end quote, quoting The Washington Post from Saturday morning from a piece titled What Went Wrong With the Corona Virus test in the U. S. Quote, narrow testing basically guaranteed that the United States wouldn't remain unaware of whether the virus was already circulating among people who thought they had a cold or the flu end. Quote. And this is an op ed from The Washington Post from Friday by William Hann Aggie,

an associate professor of epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard. The title of his piece is Testing for the Corona virus might have stopped it. Now it's too late. Quote Once infection starts spreading, as it clearly has in the United States, even though we haven't been testing enough people to turn up a large number of cases, the virus has an expanding pool of potential hosts. As the number of infected people climb, it is ever harder to stop them before they fatefully join their family for dinner, had to work at a toy store or go to a soccer match. If you don't diagnose the disease, it doesn't go away. It keeps being transmitted without being noticed, and 1000 little fires spark. If we don't start aggressively testing mild illness and contacts of contacts, we will lose all track of them.

Bruce Aylward, leader of the Joint World Health Organization China Mission, put it bluntly, quote. It's all about the speed and quote. We're in a race with the virus, and if it wins, we only get more contacts to chase. In an ever growing chain reaction and quote, that's the fear that's been making its way around this weekend. Many think the U. S. Is now in that uncontrollable chain reaction. Faye's New York state has been another place with a large number of early cases, but the majority of them until last week could be traced to a single person who then infected family members, friends.

His rabbi. Officials in New York were able to track down the chain of connections and detect them and move people into quarantine. But how many other cases like that are out there at this very moment? William Hagee's opinion piece concludes, like this quote test early test, often testing costs money. But this should be considered an investment in public health. A negative test result is just as important as a positive one. We all know that the best way to Fight Cove in 19 would have been to keep it out, but we left the door open and made little attempt to spot it as it tiptoed in and got established. It is hard to understand how this could have happened, but now the least we can do is prepare and mitigate the worst outcomes. The first step is turning on the lights and quote quick. Note that though this show is coming out on Sunday today, we typically won't be doing weekend shows normally. Also a note to overseas listeners.

We will be focusing on the show primarily on the U. S. Situation. As that is, where we ourselves are located. We encourage you to turn to your local news sources for news about your immediate region. We it right home media very much hope this is a temporary show. Nothing would please us more than to wind this show down again in a number of weeks. But for two years now, we have been producing daily news podcasts across four different shows, and we felt that daily podcasts are uniquely suited to be useful during news events like this. So we will continue to have an update for you every week, day around 5 p.m. Eastern.