BBC sounds, music, radio, podcasts, BBC news, the Corona Virus podcast. Keeping the country safe is the government's overriding priority. I got a call. I'm sorry to tell you have contracted the virus. You know, I felt like I was a soldier getting ready for war. We're not over reacting. This is a new iris. We

don't know what it's going to do. I shouldn't warn the rest of the word that you guys should take care. Don't

need galactic, this disease. Come on, bring us home.

Welcome to the very first episode off the BBC Corona virus podcast. There are three people here frantically rubbing that hand. I've gotta give

Chill out the hand job, even tearing at the alcohol based hand gel, which, actually, if you've got

cuts on your hands because you've been watching them so often actually hurt. Yeah, because I don't know about you. My hasn't really getting chat. I'm feeling you have to set an example everywhere I go in handwashing I've ever society overloaded on alcohol. Okay, Just keep rubbing way, Auto. Have a bit of happy

birthday. Yeah, they have really uncovered.

Absolutely Well, Joey, you happy birthday to the Director General. of the World Health Organization. What's his birthday? Slightly late. Happy birthday to

you Happy birthday to you Happy birthday.

Happy birthday, Thio. Technically, we should do that again, But

we were way I was trying

to harmonize. Okay, so we are. We have clean hands, which is a good start on. We're about two meters away from each other, so there's a bit of social distancing going on.

If

you are confused, worried or simply want to know more about the Corona virus and the disease cove it 19 that it causes. This is the program to listen to every week will tackle different issues in depth. Examine what the risks are both two people on our way of life. How you can protect yourself on what are the implications for the health service and the economy. But let's start by introducing ourselves properly.

Yes, hello, I'm too late. Museums. I'm the BBC's global health correspondent. I've been doing this job for about six or seven years. I started just a few months before the West Africa Ebola outbreak struck at the end of 2013 start of 2014 which was a bit of a baptism of fire I learned tattoo. Learn a lot of global health things very quickly on I went out West Africa a number of times between 2014 and 2016 before that, so I traveled quite a lot with the BBC. I was based in Pakistan, in Islamabad for a year. I was also based in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh on dhe many, many moons ago. I presented knees. Beats

on my idea. One. I hear you may have been the youngest ever. At the time,

I think I was the youngest ever presented.

So proud. I'm James Gallagher and the Deep Seas health and science correspondent, and I have that job because I'm probably the officers in House nerd is not fair, very fair, very fair. And so it's really rude to make me have to come after to that question because this is my jet set lifestyle. I've been here. I've been here, I've been here and I get a largely set my desk in the office most of the day. Reading scientific papers and scientific journals is speaking to scientists, but that's a really important part of the current virus story because understanding exactly what this virus is where it's come from. What is going to do next is informing what we're going to have to do is part of society on go hand the battle now on some sanitizer rights. There you go, Fergus. Clean that desk up. My hands have actually cleaned the keyboard. S o I'm Fergus Walsh on the BBC's medical correspondent.

I've traveled to many countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe reporting on things like malaria, HIV h five, n one bird flu on dhe Here we are now looking at Corona virus class. What was your first pandemic of your first rodeo? My first pandemic officially was swine flu on. I remember four days after the first very different pandemic to this one. If we are going to call this pandemic at some point. The first case in Mexico was in April 2009. I think itwas on within four days. We had the first case in Scotland. It was a couple had bean honeymooning in Cancun on we were dispatched at the very short noticed and as I was going out the door of Television Centre, I was given a bag containing overalls, disposable overalls, those blue plastic overshoot things, gloves on dhe face masks.

What we're trying to do here is to try and really get to the nub of what's going on and also just a lay. Some fears. I think as well. There's a lot of panic out there, and I think there's a lot of good information out there as well, but also correct some misinformation that's going around. There have been some crazy stories going around about how this thing started and how you might be able to catch it, so hopefully we can give some people some really helpful information.

We'll think about trying to get it. Keep a sensible hat on all of this, isn't it, because you kind of get these two counts? The thesis. The end of the world camper thing. Everything's, you know that this is the end of society together. This is nothing to worry about. This is just a common cold campaign. Actually, the answer is somewhere in between there is a danger, but we have to be sensible about what that danger is, and it's all about how you calibrate rescue. It's something. We're very bad as human

beings that doing, and that's always the fear of the unknown, and there are still a lot of unknowns about this. But just because we don't know what the moment doesn't mean that we're not going to find out all the research is going on. I was just at the World Health Organization in Geneva a couple of weeks ago. Where were something like 400 of the world's leading scientists, Just all in one place, some of them on the line from China, obviously in some other countries. And they were, you know, the world's top minds on this, and it really felt like they are, you know they are. They're working 24 7 I mean, I saw some of them amazing people, but looking very Hackett just trying to get to the bottom of what's going on. So I mean, you know, you've got the world's leading minds trying to come up with answers very quickly.

We've got a lot to get through in this first programme because we've got to catch up with things that have been happening since December, maybe slightly before that. James, What is the Corona virus we'll be talking about? What is the Corona virus? What Corona viruses that like a group of virus. Now, if you think about, say, animals, you don't go. Ah, that's an animal, That's what you they have different categories. You go there, bears or they're foxes or their dogs. And that's what you do with viruses.

And one of the sub categories of types of virus is a Corona virus. Now there's Bean a few before, so there's four that do the rounds quite a lot of the time now. I'm not gonna give you their names because it looks like someone randomly bash at the keyboard is just a combination of letters and numbers that they give you a car. They give. They cut their the common cold. Then there are two more severe ones, which they are SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome that kills about one in 10 people who are infected with you. No common cold. You're okay. You ride with that, you do not want to get sauce. And you certainly do not want to get the sixth form, which is called MERS Middle East Respiratory syndrome. Those Airil Corona viruses. This is the seventh Corona virus to infect and spread in human beings. And this is SARS Cove to the actual virus, right? This is gonna be the first bit where we have to just get so

gaming is so confusing, isn't

it? Is it you're looking at me? Is the way we have two names. We have cove it 19 should have heard a lot about. And that is the disease that it causes. So that's Corona virus disease. 2019 cove it 19. But the virus has been named by a completely different group of people, and they've caught it SARS Corona virus to because it looks genetically very, very closely related to the SARS virus that we had just after the turn of the millennium. So you have two groups have named the virus and the disease two completely different things on fascinating that we are not allowed anymore to call things like swine flu, Hong Kong flu, Asian flu, Spanish flu. You're not allowed to call diseases after people Alzheimer's docked outside. You can't know enough to people after animals after places.

Yeah, and they say about the stigma, isn't it that comes with it. So, you know, with the bowler, for example, which is probably one of the most when you say a bullet, people get really scared about that. It's one of those diseases that really kind of inflicts fear on people. But that was from the Ebola River and in what was then what is now DRC was then sigh it

on dhe the time of swine flu. By the time it had become a human disease, it wasn't a problem getting it from pigs. But Egypt slaughtered all its pigs within a short time after the spread response wife with this. So there are good reasons, and we've seen a bit of that at the beginning of this up because it was initially woo flu. I mean, that's what it was commonly being called. Wuhan flew at the very beginning of this. I mean, it's not a flu, which is a whole different thing, but you saw there was this desire to name the disease in the virus far before anything was officially recognizing. It created this little window. We had snake flu as well at one point, and there's a danger that you stigmatize whole countries and people. They're unfairly because this this disease, this virus is now spreading throughout Europe well throughout the world. So it's Theus Association with China. There's many more cases outside China now on a daily basis than there are inside.

Yeah, these viruses emerge from nature, and that could happen anywhere in the world.

So it it jumped from animals. Do we know any more about which animal it jumped from? Well ish, but also no. If you weaken, do with viruses, it's a bit of a little bit like a paternity test. If you go, I don't think that child's mind you. You can look at its genetic code and compare it to yours and see if that that child is closely related to you. I've not had a paternity test. You're looking at me is that I'm crazy, but you can do the same thing with viruses. And when you look at the new Corona virus and you compare its genetic code to all the other viruses out there in the virus family tree, then it looks very similar to Bat Corona viruses. So there's a coronaviruses there in bat, so that makes scientist think it probably came from bats at some point,

and it probably doesn't step in between come to another animal, and they jumped to humans via possibly a wet food live animal market in Wuhan, but they had all kinds of animals on that market. There, there were snakes. There were pangolins. You know, there were all kinds of animals that you could buy and eat there. But which one of it was the route we still don't know. Let's talk about the disease that the Corona virus over 19 Cove in 19. Exactly So the disease. It's a respiratory illness. It infects the lungs. On dhe. You catch it generally speaking, by either touching hard surfaces where somebody's coughed and then touching your face. Which is why we should not be touching your face

as you're saying that I'm literally touching my face. Yes, so hard

to be, Oh, yeah, and then it spread through droplets through the air, one somebody costs, which is this whole thing about social distancing. The virus then attacks the lungs on dhe. It causes the symptoms a fever on a dry cough. In most people, that will be pretty much how far it would go, and they'll get better within two weeks. A mild illness, but it can go on to cause shortness of breath, inflamed lung tissue cause pneumonia, and in very severe cases lead to organ failure on death, and you can have cases where, especially we've seen it in China,

where people are on oxygen therapy and in intensive care for several weeks. Yeah, I read some of the case reports from the Chinese doctors, and you see that they're throwing everything medicine has got at these patients. I mean, this is not some kind of really impoverished health care system trying to keep these patients alive in the most severe cases really bad. So they were putting some of these patients. Sometimes they were quite old. Sometimes they run in their fifties and sixties on ECMO, which is basically an artificial lung. And now if you've ever seen what happens to someone when they're on ECMO, it's basically is almost like a hose. Pipe size tube comes out of the body, and then a machine parts oxygen into the blood, and then that pumps the blood back in. It's a really invasive,

high risk procedure, and it wasn't enough. In some cases, it's incredibly effective. Reported on ECMO extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for the BBC in Melbourne and Sydney in 2009 because it was used to help people there because of swine flu and it and it takes over the job of the heart and lungs and oxygenates the blood and gives those there's really tired organs chance to recover on its incredible on that if we have an epidemic here, ECMO will be one of the biggest potential lifesavers.

I think we need to remember as well, don't we that, you know, this kind of equipment is crucial. I know that the World Health Organization has put a call out for countries to get in as many ventilators, and then this sort of stuff is possible because this can be a very serious respiratory diseases, you say, However, we have to remember, don't we that for 80% of people, it's a pretty mild disease, and actually many people might not even realize that they have it. But there is that 20% for which for whom it's going to be a much more serious disease. But it is older people. It's people with underlying health problems. They may have like a heart condition or diabetes, which weakens their immune system,

so they're less capable of fighting this if and when it comes. But I think you know for us sitting around? No, in this studio for people. Most people listening to this. Even if you were to come into contact with it, you would probably be fine. You know, you might not even realize you have. It is older people, you know, I'm I'm slightly worried about my dad, you know, just cause he is a little bit older, He's got a couple of underlying health issues. He's traveling quite a lot is in India at the moment. These are the it is older people that that the world needs to be more concerned about. And that's why all these different things air coming in in countries like the U K of how these plans of action of how would we actually support the more vulnerable people in our communities

to quick force. And if it's mostly mild, why we all in such a panic and you know and we see it, you know that the producer of this programme Joe's in the studio next door and she was saying on the hurting, her train down crowned with people wearing face masks in the UK, where we don't have widespread its circulation virus. So how do we calibrate the risk on the level of fear, what's appropriate, what's not. So we're worried about it because it's a brand new human disease on a virus to which none of us has any immunity on. Because there's such uncertainty about how many people it could infect on off those infections. How many it may kill. It's the calibration they're off. Just how many people is coded 19 Going to hospitalize on potentially killing? You're mentioning tulip about? It's yes, it's mostly the elderly,

and this there's kind of a curve. Or there was a study of about more than 40,000 cases in China, which is where everybody gets this. Four out of five people will get a mild disease on. That's true, Andi. If you're over 80 your risk is many, many times that over 50 year old and many times that of a of a 20 year old, only two out of 100 cases in people under the age of 20. And yet we've seen young people, one of the doctors who first raised the alarm about this 34 years old. It it is an indiscriminate virus. It you're not absolutely in the clear if you're a young fit young adult casket, Deeply personal question, then are you scared by this fire's? I'm happy to answer it,

but yeah, I'm not I'm not scared by the virus, but, you know, having reported on from the safety of the studio Ebola and SARS on DDE in Vietnam, H five n one, this is the This is the virus. This is the disease that concerns me most because of its potential. The only thing that I've personally changed in the last few weeks is really rigorous hand washings to such an extent that you end up with the looking a bit pink. What? They end up being cracked. And every time I wash my hands in a public place, I feel as you know, hand washer banging that drum in chief, I have to really, really do it thoroughly. Philip. You anxious as well?

I'm not too anxious. We've been in a similar place before. The cases are much bigger. This is spreading in a way that we've not seen another virus spread for a very, very long time. But I am confident with the global response to this. I sort of feel like the world is coming together in a way that it often doesn't on some other really big international problems that we have is a global community. The World Bank has announced. I think it's $13,000,000,000.12 billion dollars. I think that's an unprecedented amounts for an outbreak like this. I think it's also important to say that we are seeing when you talk about fear and why there's this fear. And Fergus, you were absolutely right. Of course, this is, Ah, virus we don't know very much about. We're still finding out about it has spread quite widely now. Geographically

crystals coming in handy way. We have to set the example. It's at times like this when you need someone in the studio with no one but to professorships. Welcome. Crystal Donley, professor or statistical epidemiology at Imperial College, London, on Dhe, professor of Applied Statistics at Oxford University High have you yet? You You've had

the hand, Joe. I have, but I'm sitting a bit close. You were talking about being two meters away and no to open air. Close. Yeah, well, ej away, but I think my face next way.

Let's keep a sense of perspective, though. As far as we know, we don't have massive community spread in the UK. So at the moment that social distancing more we think it is now there is some community spreading the day. Now don't without. The chief medical officer said that he thinks you're likely on. We should get used

to this. So you should. Yeah, you don't wanna wait until half the people are already

ill because then it was too late, right? A lot. Yeah, So it's a crystal. Can you, in layman's terms for us all, explain mathematical modeling and how you model a disease outbreak, which is happening live

well. It's the most urgent and the most pressured kind of modeling and analysis. You know, some people think of modeling is being set of equations, and we do use equations and computer programs to implement them. But we also look at data, and that's really important because otherwise the modeling might be informative, but we need to tie it to something. So this data comes through, for example, how many people have died so far in what age is also how many cases have been reported in different countries. We can compare that for example to the number of flights from Wuhan City Airport and see where it looks like we might be missing

cases on a rather startling figure. Waas a given out by the director general of the W. H O, who said that the death rate waas 3.4% for this disease, and we'd all been working on one maximum 2% for us, a global figure. Any thoughts

on that? Although we might at least hope that all the reported deaths are all the deaths of that disease are being reported and, um, coming through into the data set, there's the bottom of that that fraction the denominator. That's the number of cases. And so if you're in an area like China, Wu Han in particular, that has for the health care system an overwhelming number of cases, then we don't have a full denominator. So that's one issue. And so the estimate that our group produced of about 1% was per infection. So it was trying to use the data from repatriation flights to get a feel for how many infected people that might be compared to how many cases, Chris, So could we just be really clear on what modeling is and what it isn't because we've heard modeling. That's quite scary. That says,

you know, 80% of the world's population is gonna get Corona virus on. Those numbers sound quite scary, but modeling looks at what happens. They do several scenarios, don't they? What happens if you do nothing and then that? But I often won't take into consideration mitigating factors like shutting down entire city's closing schools. Things like that, right to the 80% of our figures like that, those summer 2/3 that comes from what we call the basic reproduction number. Now that's the bit of jargon. But it's the average number of people. One infected person will will infect the best estimates about two and 1/2. Now, that doesn't sound that much. If I were the first infected person and I in fact two or three. But

if I tell you, infecting everyone in the studio, yes, a very weird in this three this year,

it would be over now, but yes. Oh, so be more likely to be Peter my home than you, but that's on average. But if each of those go on to infect two or three more, we get exponential spread in, the numbers go right up, so that's really important. The other thing I should say about n counting deaths over cases is that it's, I would say impossible and not just unlikely that we've seen all the deaths that will arrive from the cases so far because some of those people are still in hospital, still critical, and we won't yet have seen those deaths.

I've been having this argument with, like the people, some of the editors that I work with about why we shouldn't be using that number, because for me it's like it's wrong for two reasons. It could be higher because there's Maur deaths that still haven't been counted yet. And it could be far lower because of so many cases that we've not caught yet. So it's kind of like it's a very difficult number

to you. There are a few numbers doing the rounds on because I'm sure in the UK they said, you know, at worst it could be 80% of the population.

Is that right? Yes, that's the worst

case scenario, but globally, is it also 80% or is that 2/3. You know, they're just when I said those two and 1/2 for the reproduction number that's got an uncertainty around it of about one and 1/2 to 3 and 1/2. And depending on which case which edge of that you use, you can get higher numbers. There are a lot of numbers a lot of you know, and it's useful because it helps governments all around the world to plan. Okay, in the worst case scenario, what would we do? But it's it's It's not the same as saying to people, okay, the likelihood is that 2/3 of the world's population, or 80% in the country, are going to catch this virus.

And actually that could be quite counterproductive because that can cause panic when, when all it is is it is. It is a model to try and describe the worst case scenario. If we do nothing right and it's really important, this basic reproduction number and the total epidemic size at the end that you get as a result of that is if nothing else intervenes, and so their social distancing measures there, the hand gel that we've got here in appropriate circumstances. They may close schools or workplaces, and if they do that, the transmission will go down. And then we get something called the effective reproduction number. We want that down as low as possible. As a statistician, I'm very tight uncertainty. But then it's really important to say OK, let's not wait and see. If that's right, let's do something now. Is

it possible crystal to say what you think might happen now Them? Because we have seen how you know, putting in the right measures in Wuhan in who be promicin in China has dramatically changed the course of that outbreak there now having fewer cases every day than they were a month ago. Then you know, cases numbering tend to worn around the rest of the world cases outside of child inside China. How did the models change? Now what are your predictions? What's actually

gonna happen? It's difficult because some areas have managed to contain. So in Wuhan city it was after a large number of cases. But to be fair, that's not because of something bad about Lou, hence city per se. But if you're in the location where it starts, the challenge is much harder. Of course, the rest of us have the relative benefit of having seen what happened in Wuhan and knowing what to some extent we're dealing with, and some regions appeared to have brought under control and not have additional cases. One of the things we don't know is how many cases we've missed along the way.

Crystal. Are you somebody who's modeled a lot of alarming diseases over the years? How concerned are you about Corona virus, about coded 19 compared to what you've looked at before?

We know that influenza pandemic influenza are other strains have transmitted worldwide, and so a large number of people got them. But that was in the presence of other immunity that people develop two different influence of viruses. So we don't have that. It doesn't appear that these other Corona viruses that you mentioned are providing immunity, so we'll get likely to get more cases unless things change drastically. I mean, the death rate has to be put into perspective to look visited West Africa. I visited Sierra Leone. Those communities were dealing with the spread of the disease that killed more than half the people who got it. So it's it's nothing like that. On the other hand, you know, we haven't seen something that's raised as much concern here, and I think rightly raised concern. But that's why the government here and elsewhere, they're developing preparedness plans. They did that for pandemic influenza. Now they know the specifics to an extent of this virus. They can tailor those plans

unfair to point out the seasonal flu kills maybe part of a 1,000,000 people worldwide every year. So we've had about just over 3000 deaths since December

in this country, it would be you'd expect thousands in a typical year, But still, that's with having the virus come in. And a lot of people have some immunity to tiu influenza. And so they're different things.

Crystal Great. Well, we ought to talk about how we can protect ourselves now. At the beginning, we all did a bit of hand washing.

Get a bit more in. I mean, this is the single most important thing you can do, isn't it? Is just wash your hands. Thankfully, we live in a country off into many countries that don't have running water where you can wash your hands very regularly. If you're in work here at home that the city. If you're gonna do one thing, I would encourage at least tea. But if you're gonna do one thing, wash your hands as regularly as you can. I've I found it quite hard to pick up some of these hand sanitizer.

So calm water is your best bet anyways s open waters number one, then alcohol based hand gel. If you can't, if you can't get it. Well, if you can buy it now because the shelves have bean cleared off hand gel. One of my mom's first reactions to this is if I'm gonna get self isolated, then I'm gonna make sure you got enough stuff

in the cup of I've been about my toilet paper. Stark, Have you have any

of you stocked up on anything? As a result, you sort of role in nappies.

I've got two

kids in nappies. I don't envisage what my house would look like if I run out of nappies. So I've stockpiled on those.

I haven't done it apart. Now you're worrying me. I think it's important. Say people shouldn't. It's not helpful for

everything to go out. And I am next reacting like a complete idiot. I feel left out here. I haven't stopped up on anything.

I haven't stocked up on anything. Okay, it's just started

it. It's just those those two things and partly it's I'm not stocked up because I'm overly worried about the crone of ours. I have bought those extra things because I'm worried about what happens when everybody starts panic

buying. But that's you that I

am the vicious circle. I am the vicious circle that you will spiral down to meet me. At one point I

know I said, the number one about remember. One thing everybody can do is wash their hands. I would like to add a number two would be what we saw Fergus doing earlier, which was, if you don't have a tissue, sneeze into your elbow and they're the crooked yet crook of your elbow knows an elbow. But what you should do is get some tissues, have them to hand, sneeze or cough into that and then discard it and then wash your hands. Afterwards, there were two things you can do that we can protect you and your family and your community, and consequently

the world we're going to hear a lot more of that with a public information campaign that's going around. But maybe this is the moment, Krystal, for people who have colds and streaming noses who would otherwise valley. You know, the people they valiantly come into work coughing and sneezing and winter on passing it on to everyone else that those people now should just maybe think about working from home or staying at home.

Well, if if people have said, I mean, we still don't know about what level community transmission might be, but yet there is a lot of concern, and I rode back with a scientist who had eaten some apple on the train and then started coughing, and I'd seen him eat the apple. So I knew I was coughing. But I could see other people starting to look and be concerned. And it's really an issue. People are getting, ah, worried, but it's important. It's important to stay proportionate and understand that we do still also have all those other viruses and bacteria that are causing illness or not. Everyone who's coughing is gonna be infected

with covert 19 year on the number one viral threat at the moment in the UK certainly is seasonal influenza.

Can I put in a plug for vaccination? You can if you get your new

of hands up unit who's vaccinated every year. Yeah, well, that's good

reason to put our hands up. Yeah, well, um, the reason that I get vaccine it was 10 years ago. I got pneumonia. I ended up out of work for a whole month, but I thought I did not ever want to go through that experience again and think I could have prevented

it. It's worth remembering that it's the official advice isn't just to make sure your you have the flu job is to make sure your absolute with all of your immunizations. Because if the N. H. S is struggling in the coming months, if there is a large epidemic of carnivorous here, then not having measles or mumps cases that need hospital treatment is also a good envoy. Elderly people having the Numa cockle vaccine, all of those it's important.

We're not at the point yet are we have avoiding large gatherings or not going to the cinema or anything like that. But But how far off do we think that is? It's gotta wait and see. I mean, it's definitely gonna happen. Well, it look like I think it will happen in some places, whether or not it's here, but there will be places to take off. I was so vast it well, how soon And we don't yet know for a particular location or even country. But I think we are likely to see cases go up. Those things sound quite frightening when we just haven't ever been in a situation like this. But the reason why I feel quite confident with the response and how this could potentially go is because those plans are being put in place, you know, and the prime minister here in the UK, Boris Johnson,

did say, We're not planning because we think this is definitely going to happen. But we're planning. If it does happen, that were really well prepared businesses there, sometimes looking at replacing people for stuff that only have a desktop actually getting them a laptop with a docking station. It'll work the same when they're in the office, but then they could take the laptop home and work. My husband's company next week is actually doing a trial run of everybody working from home. So very

organized crystal. We need to let you get back to your modeling. Thank you very, very much for coming in. You're very welcome off our first guest on our first show, Krystal Donnelly.

Thank you. Thank you

very much for the road. So, guys, we need to think about wrapping up here. But before we do, there were lots of announcements from the government. Potential limits on public gatherings. The army could be brought in. One in five of us could be off work if we had a massive epidemic. How close is that? Because I'm looking at the life ticker now on Germany and France. Elbow. Oh, mate, you coughed in your hand. Sorry. Great.

Go, go, go, go, go. Wear on your back. Now We're all your bat. Sorry. Yeah. There we are. I'm looking at the life ticket. Germany on dhe Francois have well over 200 cases of, you know, four times or so as many as we have. So it looks like this virus and this disease is coming here in numbers soon. Yeah,

I think for me the big thing, that kind of the thing that made me think it was more like to it to arrive in the U. K. What was Italy because it least started noticing some cases and some deaths, and that was the warning that actually the virus had bean there and circulating for two or three weeks before they started noticing it. And the problem is we could be in a very similar situation. I said. Christmas was saying he thinks there is some low level of community spread of the virus already in the UK, so I think the anticipation is it's already here. We're not seeing it properly yet, and those cases will increase.

For me globally, The biggest worry at the moment is no longer China. It's not even South Korea, which has more than 5000 cases. It's Iran, and Iran's been dealing with an outbreak foot for much longer than I think that they either realize what they have said publicly. There are more than 2000 cases. They're around 77 deaths, and that's cool come out in the last two weeks on Dhe. What's particularly concerning is about a where it is, it's It's obviously quite a secretive country as well. W H O officials just got in, I think, this week with lots of medical supplies and diagnostic kits. But I don't think that's been very easy. But cases have been exported from Iran to countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan,

Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq. If we just look at a couple of those countries Iraq, Afghanistan, countries with really weak health systems that are already really struggling with lots of other things. Here in the UK, we have Corona virus, but authorities are on it. You know, we have a proper strong health system in place in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. They are on their knees already, so if it gets in properly there and it takes hold and frankly, at the moment we don't know if that's already happened, then that is where the that is, where we may well seek.

You know, lots of people die in their being lots of cases exported as well, because at least with here in the UK, we know who's infected. We think on we follow each, you know, we get in touch with the contacts, they're isolated. There is a system in place, but in countries with weak health systems on right from the beginning, the world Health Organization says that this is the biggest threat to the world if it gets into weaker health systems than than the whole world is looking at a potential pandemic territory. If in fact we're already there

just on a UK specific thing. I think I'm a game, the chief medical said. We're now transitioning out of the contained phase and into the delay phase of how you did manage manage

case. What does that mean?

That means we'll contain faces when you going to stop all transmission delay faces. When you against the point, we're okay. We can't stop all of all of it. Now what we're gonna do is try to slow the pace of it so that it push it at a more opportune time, which would bring in UK summer made June July rather than when we're just coming out of winter. On that note, we've come to the end off our first podcast, Tulip. How

was it for you? It's very good, although I feel like there's so much more we need to get into. There are so many questions still on there around

this, I feel like we've chatted for ages. It's completely flown by and yet there's still like 1000 more topics we could have covered. I mean, Ferguson's it just feels really quick. Absolutely. But hopefully from now on we kind of gonna catch up. This was love. New listeners start here, start here on hopefully going forward. We can delve deeper into this virus on into Cove in 19.

I do hope that we can help answer questions, but also just reassure people a little bit because it can feel like quite scary time. And actually, I would encourage people that there are lots of things you could be doing really basic things that you could be doing. Keep washing those hands, keep sneezing into tissues and throwing them away.

Thank you for making it to the end of our very first Corona virus podcast. They say. Know your enemy will. Hopefully Now you're better armed against this new disease. If you want more virus chat, why not subscribe via BBC? Sounds on the weekly episodes will magically appear so you can listen wherever and whenever you want.

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