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Back to Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Rationality, Risk, and Skin in the Game, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

What Can Nassim Taleb Teach Us About Probabilities

Most people don't understand probabilities. They think that if a probability of success is high, that means they can benefit from it indefinitely. A stock trader, for example, might look at the probably of making a large return, and risk everything on it, over and over again.

In reality, however, if there is a smallest chance of an absorbing barrier, an event in which your lose everything, then it is just a matter of time until that even happens, and you will lose everything.

Transcript

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Rationality, Risk, and Skin in the Game ·

EconTalk

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  1. What Trading Rule Does Nassim Taleb Say Keeps a Trader Alive?Nassim Nicholas Taleb told Russ Roberts on EconTalk that surviving traders skip the ornate model.
  2. How Do You Gamble Without Losing MoneyBe diligent about only playing with the house money. Start with a small bet, and if you lose, place an even smaller bet.
  3. What Is Mental Accounting and Why Is It ImportantMental accounting is a behavioral economics term which states that treating money according to its source is irrational.
  4. How Can Something Safe Also Be Incredibly RiskyIf something is safe, but has a low probability of risk, then do it often enough and the risk factor rises.
  5. Why Won't Nassim Taleb Sit Down at a Casino Table?Nassim Nicholas Taleb told Russ Roberts on EconTalk that years as a trader left him unable to gamble.
  6. What Is the Rationality of ReligionReligion enables people to convey a certain behavior throughout generations, it promotes survival for the people who have it.
  7. What Is the Meaning of "skin in the Game"What people do is more meaningful than what people say.
  8. How Did Losing Money Help President Trump Get ElectedWhile his adversaries were implying that losing money was a negative trait, Trump's supporters saw it as a positive.
  9. Who Should We Fail and Who Should We BailIt depends on the probabilistic outcomes and the value of one's output to our society.

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