Smash Notes
Jim O’Shaughnessy guide to trading stocks in a panic
Jim & Howard talk about fear, greed, hope and ignorance. Guest - Jim O’Shaughnessy, Founder, Chairman & Co-Chief Investment Officer, OSAM LLC <a href="http://howardlindzon.com/" target="_blank" rel= "noopener" data-saferedirecturl=…
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Notes
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According to Jim OShaughnessy, Founder, Chairman & Co-Chief Investment Officer, OSAM LLCGold, gold bricks in your backyard or a safety deposit box might be somewhat panic proof, but otherwise, during times like this, when people are panicking, no, no asset is risk proof.
People can intellectually understand the risk, but in practice it is really hard to cope with, especially when it comes crashing down so unexpectedly.
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In the time of uncertainty, people want definitive answers; the market is going to plunge or the market's going to recover. Unfortunately, given the times, it is impossible to tell the future with any kind of certainty.
If you look at the very long term data, since the founding of the U. S stock exchange in the late 17 hundreds, the market today is a good long term bet!
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Jim O'Shaughnessy told Howard Lindzon on Lindzanity that models built from data beat human judgment in college admissions, in predicting which prisoners reoffend, and in doctors' diagnoses. People built the models and still lost, because human choices are inconsistent and the cause is almost always emotion. That research became his books, especially What Works on Wall Street. He calls fear, greed, hope, and ignorance the four horsemen of the investment apocalypse. Only ignorance is not an emotion, and reading can fix it. Fear, greed, and hope have destroyed more portfolios than anything else. He pointed to Richard Feynman dropping a Challenger O-ring into ice water and saying he thought that was the problem.
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Understand your fears, talk through them. It will help you understand what is causing your feelings.
When things are bad, and you are only consuming bad information, the rest of the world starts to look bad.
Turn off your computer, go look at the sun, relax.
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Jim realized that while he has an appetite for risk, that won't be true for many of his clients, and everyone should have a portfolio that optimized for their comfort level. Some people would prefer to make less money with less risk, and that is totally okay. What's most important is that your start investing as early as you can, making the most gain from the compounding interest.
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