Smash Notes
Shawn Ryan's CIA Contractor Critical Thinking Evasion Exercise
Shawn Ryan, former Navy SEAL and CIA contractor, runs through a critical thinking exercise on currencies and items of value that can get you out of a life-threatening pinch.
People
Notes
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Shawn Ryan lines up five different items as currency for getting out of a very life-threatening scenario. The limit on the exercise is speed. Speed and time are of the essence when the need is to get out of an area, pay somebody off, or bribe somebody.
There is no time to count shillings or try to get a discount. Shawn Ryan says the move is to offer an item of value to somebody who may have something that could save a life. The choices get written down first, and the reasoning on each decision comes after.
The opening is about the trade itself. One item of value, no bargaining, because the clock is what makes the scenario dangerous. Counting shillings would waste the speed the scenario depends on.
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Shawn Ryan compares one Rolex watch with gold because the two stand in for the same value in a bad scenario. Roughly the amount of gold equals the Rolex watch, and seven gold coins would equal the Rolex watch. The question Shawn Ryan poses is which one to carry on a person in case of a bad scenario.
The options are seven gold coins, one ounce each, or one Rolex watch. Shawn Ryan does not choose yet. The comparison is the setup for a later decision: equal value, two ways to carry it, and the pick gets written down in the comments before any reasoning.
Gold is the pile that matches the Rolex watch. The seven one-ounce gold coins are the amount Shawn Ryan sets beside one Rolex watch, so the later choice is about how to carry equal value, not about which pile is worth more.
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Shawn Ryan used to wear a Rolex watch everywhere while working for CIA, and the Rolex watch is escape currency. It is a universally recognized item of value that stays on the wrist and can be traded for a ride, a car, or shelter when a life is at risk. Shawn Ryan is not bargaining and is not counting shillings. Something of high value gets traded for something of nominal value when somebody is about to be killed.
A ride to the airport in an unmarked car can be worth the Rolex watch. Shelter, being hid in a basement for the next 24 hours, might be worth seven gold coins. A car needed to get out might be worth eight bars of silver. Shawn Ryan would choose the Rolex watch. Seven gold coins and the Rolex watch are equal value, but the seven coins would have to ride in a pocket or an E&E bag. The Rolex watch is always on the wrist, so it does not get forgotten, and everybody knows what a Rolex is. Folexes exist, and fool's gold exists too. A card of authenticity can help show the Rolex watch is real. Even without the card, the Rolex watch takes up no space and does not get lost.
The Rolex watch is easier to carry than gold coins or cash. Shawn Ryan would rather keep the value on the wrist than carry seven gold coins, or a substantial amount of cash, for the same kind of trade. The need in the moment is a ride to the airport.
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Shawn Ryan chooses one gold coin over seventy ounces of silver. The scenario is one gold coin or the equivalent in silver, and Shawn Ryan does not want to carry seventy ounces of silver everywhere.
The gold coin and the silver are equal value. One gold coin takes up less space, can be hidden a little more easily, and is easier to keep track of. Shawn Ryan does not think anybody would treat the gold as real and the silver as fake, or the reverse.
The choice is the bulk. Seventy ounces is a load to haul everywhere, and one gold coin is the same value in a form Shawn Ryan can hide and keep track of. The pick is not a bet that one metal will look more real than the other.
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Shawn Ryan picks silver instead of cryptocurrency. If cryptocurrency were a little more popular and everybody had it, Shawn Ryan would probably pick cryptocurrency, because cryptocurrency fits in a phone. Shawn Ryan always had a phone while working, and a phone is part of everyday carry.
Cryptocurrency is not that popular. A lot of people do not have cryptocurrency. Probably less than half the population even knows what cryptocurrency is. Shawn Ryan would go with silver because of the lack of popularity.
The phone already solves how to carry cryptocurrency. What silver has, and cryptocurrency does not, is recognition. Silver is the pick while most people still would not know what to do with cryptocurrency.
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Shawn Ryan picks cash over cryptocurrency for the exact same reasons as the silver choice. Everybody knows what a greenback is across the globe, and not everybody knows what cryptocurrency is yet. A larger amount of cryptocurrency can be carried than cash, because cryptocurrency fits in a phone. Shawn Ryan would still pick cash, because a greenback is already understood across the globe.
The Rolex watch versus cash is the toughest choice of the set. Shawn Ryan would go with the Rolex watch rather than carry the equivalent amount of cash all the time. The cash is a substantial amount, and the preference is to have the value on the wrist. Some cash still gets carried, just not as much, because everybody speaks greenback and everybody knows a greenback.
Any of the items might get the result. There is no single right answer, and picking a different item does not make the reasoning wrong. Shawn Ryan is offering one line of reasoning in a critical thinking exercise.