Why Does a Single Pivot Predict Startup Success?

Jeff Morris Jr says one single pivot is a greater predictor of success for a startup than no pivots or a bunch of pivots. An academic research paper is the source of the comparison. A team starts working on one problem, comes across a bigger problem while working on a different problem, and adjusts the product and company strategy around the new discovery.

Slack is the example he uses to show how the pattern can be true. The team was working on a game and had built an internal chat platform to run the company while building the game. The game failed. They already had the other product, so they left gaming and built the chat platform. Facebook is a separate case he does not expect to appear in the research paper. It began as a desktop website, then the company went all in on mobile once mobile looked like the bigger opportunity.

The pattern plays out when a team is deep in what it thought was the main thing and then meets an even bigger problem. Practice at solving and identifying customer needs is what surfaces the larger issue.