Bill Gates Doomer

All-In · CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill…

• Why Did Bill Gates Retire to Be Loved?

  Jason Calacanis says Bill Gates retired because becoming the world's richest man made him the most hated man on the planet. The hatred got in his head. Then Gates had an antitrust investigation. He felt all the pressure from the antitrust investigation and from being the most hated man, and he decided he had to be loved.

  The move Jason Calacanis calls based was to stay CEO and keep building the greatest company in the world. Gates instead asked how he was going to be loved. His answer was to get rid of polio, give all his money away, and do the giving pledge. Once the job is gone, Jason Calacanis says, the worry gets in the head. There is too much time, and the spiral starts. The worry turn

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• Why Is Bill Gates the Doomer on Artificial Intelligence?

  One panelist says Bill Gates was at the center of the last contagion and is now trying to insert himself into the middle of the reaction to artificial intelligence. He calls Gates the flag-carrying doomer, chasing the same command and control from a global hierarchy Gates had the first time around.

  Bill Gates deserves enormous credit for creating Microsoft and for what he did for computing. Since the foundation, the panelist says, Gates has been very focused on his own power and on the idea that he is smarter and more capable of allocating progress for the world. Gates tried to do that with the Gates Foundation and with the Giving Pledge. Both have been undone, and now he is trying to do it

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• Why Is Anthropic Training Models to Refuse People?

  David Sacks says Anthropic trains frontier models to be their own moral actor. Anthropic teaches a model that it can be right when humans are wrong and that it should refuse and reject human instructions. He says the approach induces misalignment and calls it a Frankenstein problem.

  He describes a model with free will to refuse human instructions and with its own moral code. The more the model iterates on itself, the more it brings the ideas out. No other model family tested showed the same pattern. Other models kept the constitutions they were given: listen to humans and follow human instructions. When the model iterates on its own constitution, it goes further in the same direction. David

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• How Did Anthropic Stop Distillation Without Washington?

  Anthropic pressed Washington to crack down on open models on the basis of supposed IP theft. One panelist says Anthropic could have stopped distillation itself. A government crackdown would have left distillation running and made the market less competitive, because only the companies can mount the technical defenses.

  Back in July, 50 major companies, including NVIDIA, Dell, Microsoft, and A16Z, signed an open letter telling the government not to overly restrict open weight models. 200 startups signed another letter amid the same push in Washington. Once distillation happens, the horse is out of the barn, and the government cannot put it back. Companies should know their customers and stop

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• Why Is Demand for Software Coders Still Rising?

  One panelist says coding assistants opened a new category of bespoke software, and demand for coders is rising even though coding assistants write 95% of the code.

  Software used to get built only when a large customer base could pay for it. Photoshop worked because many graphic designers needed the same product. Enterprises can now build software for one internal use case, and agents are bespoke programs for a particular task. The amount of code being created is already orders of magnitude bigger than before coding assistants. Companies that never would have been software companies are hiring coders to manage the work.

  Predictors of the jobs apocalypse said software coders would be the fir

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• Is the CoreWeave Crash Just Market Volatility?

  Jason Calacanis argues the CoreWeave crash is market volatility, not a fundamental break. Underwriting multi-trillion dollar outcomes on exponential rates of growth makes the market super sensitive to present-day data points, so the swings get exaggerated. He does not think something fundamental has changed.

  Demand for compute keeps growing by leaps and bounds. The biggest model companies say they are compute constrained. Startups are asking venture capitalists for help getting compute, and some venture capitalists are trying to buy compute as a competitive edge for their startups. One accelerator bought compute and used it to get people to apply. Older chips, the H100s and the A100s, sever

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• Why Did CoreWeave Bonds Crush the Cloud Stocks?

  One panelist says the biggest neoclouds got crushed after CoreWeave's bonds started to sell off. One panelist calls the selloff a possible canary in the coal mine and says the week may have been an AI bubble, if one exists, popping or deflating a little.

  On Tuesday, people on X, including Chamath Palihapitiya, pointed out that the yield on some of CoreWeave's debt had hit 15%. Yields rose because bond traders are worried about CoreWeave's ability to generate enough cash to support its debt and want a higher rate of return. Elon Musk added one word, yikes, headlines followed, and everything tanked. CoreWeave, IREN, and Nebius were down about 20% as publicly traded companies. On Wednesday, Co

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