Why Will the Cost of Intelligence Keep Falling?

Jensen Huang says the last year unlocked knowledge, working memory, and tool use. Agents can now use the tools companies already run on, from Photoshop and AutoCAD to chip-design software, instead of inventing those tools again. Coding was the easy first job. He says a photo can already be turned into CAD so engineers can fine-tune it, and the same pattern is opening design, science, and other work. All of that happened while OpenAI and Anthropic each had only about two or three gigawatts of compute.

He expects the cost of intelligence to fall fast. More compute is arriving, and a smarter model is a more efficient one. He compares it to three decades in which computing cost dropped by a factor of two every year. He wants intelligence cheaper by a factor of two, or even 20, every year, because use will more than make up for the price cut. A result like Navier-Stokes, he says, came from exhaustive search over work scientists had already done, and that search takes a lot of compute. Many fields are at the same point.