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Back to Thrive Capital's Bet on Neuralink, OpenAI & the Future of Medicine, with Nworah Ayogu.

How Did Oscar Health Recover From a 95 Percent Drop?

Oscar Health, the first company Thrive ever invested in, fell 95% from its peak value in December 22. It then climbed back above its IPO price. Nworah Ayogu said Oscar increased 100% year over year, while health insurers as a group had a hard last year and a half.

Nworah Ayogu remembered arguing as a know-it-all med student that a new health insurer was a bad idea. The last health insurer created was United Healthcare in 1977, before the internet. A new insurer was not something people did, because it is too hard and takes too much scale and too much capital. He was glad to be proven wrong. Oscar's plan was to use the ACA to build a consumer-centric health insurer, and the plan worked. Oscar built a tech-first infrastructure a decade ago, including its own claim stack and its own claims processing.

The infrastructure from a decade ago is what has let Oscar move fast with AI, because Oscar already had a modern tech stack.

Transcript

Thrive Capital's Bet on Neuralink, OpenAI & the Future of Medicine ·

Sourcery

More from this episode

  1. Why Is Drug Discovery Moving Faster Than Ever?Nworah Ayogu said that, more so than at maybe any other time in history, the frontier of science and the frontier of what has been accomplished is moving…
  2. What Do Drug Discovery Models Actually Get Right?Drug discovery models have gotten better and better at the first job: choosing a molecule that binds a chosen target well.
  3. How Does Neuralink Give Paralyzed People Function Back?Nworah Ayogu said healthcare often does a very good job of extending life and does not do a very good job of improving quality of life or giving people life…
  4. Why Is Neuralink More Interesting Than SpaceX?Nworah Ayogu called Neuralink a more interesting company than SpaceX, because the brain is vaster than space. "A $3 trillion company?"
  5. How Did One Merck Drug Outearn Every Major Lab?Nworah Ayogu said Keytruda, one Merck drug, had 2025 revenue larger than the revenue of all the major labs combined. Biotech is already big business.
  6. How Did OpenEvidence Reach Two Thirds of Doctors?Nworah Ayogu said OpenEvidence spread because doctors wanted it. Nworah Ayogu said he had never heard doctors rave about a clinical tool.
  7. What Is the Price of One Child's Life?Nworah Ayogu said medicine can now treat rare genetic problems one patient at a time, and said a million and a half dollars to make and deliver a treatment is…

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