1: Peter Thiel
Welcome to The Portal. Episode 1 is a conversation with Peter Thiel.Please subscribe to The Portal anywhere you listen to podcasts, and leave us a rating and review in Apple Podcasts.
In this episode
Smash Notes summary for this episode
Why does Peter Thiel think the next depression is at most a decade away?
Back in the dot-com bubble days Peter Thiel though that physiologically he would not see another bubble for a lifetime because people wouldn't be able to repeat the rodeo, having gone through the trauma. Yet, we have gone through a number of bubbles in just the last two decades.
In 1990s the narrative was all about the new economy, and people lied about growth. In 2000s it was all about the great moderation, with a lie about volatility. Then in 2010 it was all about secular stagnation, and the lie was that interest rates were going to stay low forever.
Today we are just living in another bubble, having not fully realized what it is that we are lying to ourselves about.
Are we on the cusp of another Great Depression?
Despite the depression, 1930s saw a boom in innovation and growth, riding on the tailwind of scientific and and technological innovation from the 1920s. Aviation, plastics, movies, appliances, and a bunch of other industries got going in that time. By 1939 three-times as many people had cars in US as they did in 1929. It all got badly mismanaged, but the basis for a booming economy were all there. Today, on the other hand, we are doing a fine job managing the economy, but we don't have such a strong tailwind to propel our growth.