Is the OpenAI Boom a Confidence Game?

Ed Zitron says the OpenAI boom is a shell game and a powerful confidence game. He hopes the believers all share the same view, and because they believe it, no one wants to stop. OpenAI is the fastest growing company in the world, and Anthropic is the fastest growing company. The media, regular people, and investors buy in.

The Silicon Valley playbook is to sign as many big deals as possible, push the number up, and wait until the product gets cheaper. The cheaper turn is not happening. The demand on OpenAI and Anthropic is to grow into the next Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, which means acting like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon and signing the contracts. People who only care about growth look at the money being promised and picture getting paid. They do not ask whether OpenAI can pay.

A tinge of truth holds the game together. The technology is incredible and like nothing ever seen before, and people are sure someone will figure out how to use it. Four years and a trillion plus dollars in, the uses named are code and professionalizing emails.