Ray Dalio

Shaan Puri says the investors he has heard, including Howard Marks and Ray Dalio, tend to win in one of three ways. Superior temperament is the pattern of staying greedy when others are fearful and handling swings. An informational edge is understanding a market, or where it is going, better than other people. Straight arbitrage is buying one side and selling the other when the prices do not add up, until the gap closes.

Bill Perkins says his natural gas desk was the first two, not arbitrage. People who study every driver of supply and demand still fail if they cannot stay stoic through losses, because fear shuts down clear thinking, and trading does not hand out five wins for every loss. T

Josh Brown says that if this is a bubble, it is the most pathetic one he has ever seen, and an anti-bubble. Ed Elson had cited Ken Griffin and Ray Dalio, who both said last week that markets are in a bubble. Josh Brown's reply is that the market prices in skepticism about growth every day. He allows one bubble claim only: today's tech profits may not last. He will not call the valuations a bubble.

Tech earnings growth this quarter is estimated at 65.6% year over year. Without semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, that falls to 24.9%. Western Digital reported $4.64 against $4.11 expected, and Oracle reported $1.92 against $1.74, while the group is still not making highs together. Since

Mark Cuban says the United States could get into a debt bubble because hyperscalers are borrowing so much.

The federal deficit keeps rising, so the country has to borrow more, and the hyperscalers are borrowing more than they make. Lenders then compete for that business and rates rise. He says a company with a $40 billion debt can reach a point where it cannot raise money anymore. NVIDIA, he says, is subsidizing half the industry because it has the cash, and Meta is borrowing more than it has in cash flow. Until the spending looks like brilliance, he says, private credit stays uncertain and a lot can go wrong. He cites Ray Dalio, who says the country has already crossed the curve toward a d

On AskGaryVee, Ray Dalio says an idea meritocracy has three steps. First, put your honest thoughts on the table for everyone to see. He says most people skip that, and that bad things happen when they stay in the dark. Second, practice thoughtful disagreement: meet a clash with curiosity and the chance that you are wrong, not as a fight, so a group can decide better than one person. Third, agree on a protocol for when you still disagree. At Bridgewater he uses what he calls believability-weighted decision making. He also describes picking someone you both trust and asking that person to help you through the disagreement.

After a near catastrophic public failure early in his career, Ray Dalio realized he had to learn from his failures in order to avoid them in the future.

You have to bet against the consensus and to be right.

Ray Dalio told Gary Vaynerchuk that needing noise is evidence you do not control your mind. Vaynerchuk said he wants music on and feels worse in silence than in chaos. Dalio called that the tell. Restlessness in quiet means you never leave the busy layer of the mind. If you cannot sit in that quiet without getting antsy, you are not in control, because control is being able to. Dalio was speaking as the founder of Bridgewater Associates, which he started in 1975 after he began trading at 12, while caddying. The meditation point did not depend on the fund. Stimulation is easy to love. The quiet is the test.

Ray Dalio told Gary Vaynerchuk that the Ten Commandments and the Bill of Rights are principles, but people are not walking around checking the list. Religion used to hand the list over. His claim is that each person now has to write their own. He wanted Vaynerchuk to record the decision he actually makes when a situation repeats, until those notes become Gary's formula. Dalio said he started with nothing, stumbled forward, and reached a stage where passing on his own recipes mattered, as long as other people would examine theirs. Self-awareness is the tool that separates a real principle from a habit you never noticed.

Ray Dalio told Gary Vaynerchuk that he wrote down the criteria for every decision, and those notes became his principles. Saying them let him use the same rules with a partner, with family, and at Bridgewater Associates, where the best idea is supposed to win. They later turned the rules into algorithms. A principle, he said, is how you handle something that happens again and again: skiing, raising children, or investing. You recognize the pattern and you already know the move. He had worried that readers of his book Principles would find this too abstract. He was surprised they could connect a repeated event to a written rule.