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Back to Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic, with Josh Brown.

Why Does Josh Brown Say the AI Bubble Is Pathetic?

Josh Brown says that if this is a bubble, it is the most pathetic one he has ever seen, and an anti-bubble. Ed Elson had cited Ken Griffin and Ray Dalio, who both said last week that markets are in a bubble. Josh Brown's reply is that the market prices in skepticism about growth every day. He allows one bubble claim only: today's tech profits may not last. He will not call the valuations a bubble.

Tech earnings growth this quarter is estimated at 65.6% year over year. Without semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, that falls to 24.9%. Western Digital reported $4.64 against $4.11 expected, and Oracle reported $1.92 against $1.74, while the group is still not making highs together. Since July, 0% of the names in the SMH semiconductor ETF are at a 52-week high, and he has not seen a reading of 70% or more of them at new highs.

Sandisk trades at a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.08, Micron at 0.10, and Western Digital at 0.13. He says a bubble looks like five. Micron sells at five times earnings. Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings is 15, the lowest forward valuation he thinks the stock has offered. If this is a bubble, he says, it is the worst one ever, and he pities the fool who thinks it is.

Grokipedia·Josh Brown·Western Digital

Transcript

Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·

Prof G Markets

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  1. How Fast Is Anthropic's Revenue Growing?Josh Brown says the revenue growth is what stood out in Anthropic's filing, even though leaks and comments from private investors had already pointed the same…
  2. Why Is Anthropic's $80.7 Billion Loss the Wrong Number?Josh Brown says Anthropic's $80.7 billion headline loss is the wrong figure to fixate on.
  3. Does Anthropic Have a Moat?Josh Brown does not think Anthropic has a moat like SpaceX, Nvidia, or Apple.
  4. How Much Has Anthropic Agreed to Spend on Compute?Ed Elson says Anthropic has already signed up to spend $800 billion, and those dollars are not on the income statement yet.
  5. What Is the Bear Case Against Anthropic?Scott Galloway says the bear case against Anthropic is that large companies will put a budget on AI use, and that frontier models have no real switching costs.
  6. What Did Josh Brown Make of the Anthropic S-1?Josh Brown wanted to hate the Anthropic S-1, but after reading it he recognized the numbers and stopped short of a full reversal.
  7. Why Does Josh Brown Think Anthropic Timed Its IPO Well?Josh Brown says Anthropic nailed the timing of its IPO.
  8. Who Benefits If the AI Neoclouds Fail?Josh Brown says a shakeout among neoclouds is good for the companies that already own compute.
  9. Will Anthropic Create Thousands of Multimillionaires?Josh Brown says Anthropic is going to create thousands of multimillionaire households.
  10. What Does Josh Brown Think Is Netflix's Biggest Problem?Josh Brown says Netflix's biggest problem is a comparison the company cannot do much about.
  11. When Does a Bull Market Hit Its Yearly High?Josh Brown says the high of the year in a bull market lands in December or January almost all the time.

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