Back to Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic, with Josh Brown.
Why Does Josh Brown Say the AI Bubble Is Pathetic?
Josh Brown says that if this is a bubble, it is the most pathetic one he has ever seen, and an anti-bubble. Ed Elson had cited Ken Griffin and Ray Dalio, who both said last week that markets are in a bubble. Josh Brown's reply is that the market prices in skepticism about growth every day. He allows one bubble claim only: today's tech profits may not last. He will not call the valuations a bubble.
Tech earnings growth this quarter is estimated at 65.6% year over year. Without semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, that falls to 24.9%. Western Digital reported $4.64 against $4.11 expected, and Oracle reported $1.92 against $1.74, while the group is still not making highs together. Since July, 0% of the names in the SMH semiconductor ETF are at a 52-week high, and he has not seen a reading of 70% or more of them at new highs.
Sandisk trades at a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.08, Micron at 0.10, and Western Digital at 0.13. He says a bubble looks like five. Micron sells at five times earnings. Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings is 15, the lowest forward valuation he thinks the stock has offered. If this is a bubble, he says, it is the worst one ever, and he pities the fool who thinks it is.