Will AI Replace All Human Labor by 2035?

Ethan Mollick says nobody really knows what happens to jobs. The setting is like an industrial revolution: some job categories will be invalidated in unexpected ways, some will transform, and some will grow. AI can program. Demand is up at least for senior developers because more coding is possible. A small organization can have one coder instead of a team of 20. Programmer jobs may grow, and the work is also shifting from writing code to managing code writing.

The AI labs are convinced they will replace all human labor by 2035. It is worth thinking hard about the safety nets to build during the transition. Even when the Industrial Revolution worked out well, it was grim to live through for most people: the Communist Manifesto, Dickens, air you could not breathe in London, worker unrest. The downsides have to be cushioned.