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Back to Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history, with Leopold Aschenbrenner.

When Will the World Notice Superintelligence Is Coming?

Leopold Aschenbrenner says the world still has a few more years of midgame before superintelligence feels obvious. A few more shocks like 2023 will update more people, the trend lines will become clear, and the shift will follow the early coronavirus pattern.

He says February 2020 feels a lot like today. The exponential was already visible, an utterly crazy thing was impending, and most of the world still did not realize it. The mayor of New York told people to go out to the shows and treated the warning as Asian racism. Once people saw the exponential, crazy, radical reactions followed.

Dwarkesh Patel says a March 2020 moment will come for superintelligence. He expects the reaction Aschenbrenner lays out in the series: America deciding it has to run a Manhattan Project.

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Transcript

Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history ·

Dwarkesh Podcast

More from this episode

  1. What Is the Key Question for AI Progress?Leopold Aschenbrenner says the key question for AI progress in the next few years is how hard it is to unlock the test-time compute overhang.
  2. How Does Automating AI Research Create Superintelligence?Leopold Aschenbrenner says automating AI research takes the path from AGI to AI vastly smarter than humans within a year or a couple of years.
  3. What Did Leopold Aschenbrenner's Great-grandmother Live Through?Leopold Aschenbrenner says his great-grandmother lived through the Nazi era, World War II, and most of her life under the East German communist dictatorship.
  4. How Much Electricity Does a 100 Gigawatt AI Cluster Use?Leopold Aschenbrenner says a 100 gigawatt AI cluster uses over 20 percent of United States electricity production.
  5. Should Only Democracies Develop Artificial General Intelligence?Leopold Aschenbrenner says a narrow coalition of democracies should be the group developing artificial general intelligence.
  6. How Easy Is It to Steal Unreleased AI Code?Leopold Aschenbrenner says stealing important unreleased AI code is extremely easy. DeepMind does not claim that taking the code is hard.
  7. Why Is a Three-month AI Lead Dangerous?Leopold Aschenbrenner says a neck-and-neck race with only a three-month lead is incredibly dangerous, while a 20 or 30 year technological lead is totally…
  8. Why Is AI Arms Control Unstable in a Close Race?Leopold Aschenbrenner says an arms control agreement is very unstable when the race is close, because three months ahead is enough to win.
  9. What Is Leopold Aschenbrenner Waiting to Buy?Dwarkesh Patel says Leopold Aschenbrenner told an influential person he is not going to spend any money on consumption until he is ready to buy galaxies.
  10. Why Not Wait to Nationalize AI?An early nationalization is what would lock stuff down in time, and Leopold Aschenbrenner expects America to move only once events are already obvious, in a…
  11. Why Does AI Alignment Look Like a War?Leopold Aschenbrenner says alignment during an intelligence explosion looks like a war in a fog of war, not years of bureaucracy that end in written standards.
  12. Why Did the Future Fund Collapse?The Future Fund collapsed from one day to the next in November of 22, after it came out that the backer was a giant fraud.
  13. Why Was Leopold Aschenbrenner Fired From OpenAI?Leopold Aschenbrenner says OpenAI told employees he was fired for leaking.
  14. Why Is There So Much Drama at OpenAI?Leopold Aschenbrenner says the drama at OpenAI comes from a real belief that OpenAI is building AGI, then a failure to take the implications seriously or keep…
  15. Why Do Ideas Get Harder to Find?Leopold Aschenbrenner says ideas get harder to find because each next discovery takes a log-scale jump in cumulative research effort.
  16. Can AI Research Explode Before Robots Do Physical Work?Leopold Aschenbrenner says an AI research explosion can start before robots do ordinary physical work.
  17. Why Is a Private AI Race Tough for Alignment?Leopold Aschenbrenner says the private world is extremely tough for alignment, even when labs nominally care.
  18. Is China Impenetrable to Outsiders?Leopold Aschenbrenner says China is impenetrable to him.
  19. Did Aschenbrenner Publish Knowing China Would Read It?Leopold Aschenbrenner published knowing people in the PRC would read the series.
  20. Why Did Mormon Fertility Rates Fall?Mormon fertility rates fell once the community grew big enough to live in close contact with ordinary society, Leopold Aschenbrenner says.
  21. Why Does Capital Still Matter After Superintelligence?Capital still matters after superintelligence because the decade after artificial general intelligence stays wild, and Leopold Aschenbrenner says there is a…

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