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Back to Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement, with Noam Brown.

What Could One AI Lab Run by 2030?

Dwarkesh Patel says each lab could have enough compute by the end of 2030 to run hundreds of millions of human-level intelligences, if the current rate of progress simply continues.

People are not taking seriously what continued progress implies once systems cross beyond the human horizon. Reasoning about smarter-than-human minds is hard, so the comparison is in human population sizes. A given level of compute supports a three times bigger effective population every single year, and compute keeps growing in the background. The end of 2030 is a late marker; the same scale could arrive much sooner. A few years after that, by the mid-2030s or earlier, each lab would hold many Earths worth of human-level intelligences. The systems would probably be qualitatively superhuman. He calls the forecast a base case.

Grokipedia·Dwarkesh Patel

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Noam Brown – Agent swarms, alignment, & recursive self-improvement ·

Dwarkesh Podcast

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