Why Not Wait to Nationalize AI?

An early nationalization is what would lock stuff down in time, and Leopold Aschenbrenner expects America to move only once events are already obvious, in a late and chaotic crash program like COVID. Dwarkesh Patel asks why rush, because nationalization is a one-way function. He grants that Leopold Aschenbrenner may have a point if takeoff is extremely fast: one year from AGI to ASI, then years of extraordinary technological progress. In a slower world, Dwarkesh Patel wants the project kept private until there is more evidence.

Leopold Aschenbrenner says the country will not nationalize tomorrow and will not nationalize while it is still unclear what is happening. He rejects the comfort that institutions have held up. He compares it to people who say nuclear war is a low risk because the country has had the nuke for 80 years and stayed fine. The risk is really high, he says, and the outcome was avoided only because people went through a lot of effort. Handing the government ASI without knowing what that implies is not that kind of effort.

Leopold Aschenbrenner says America is exceptional on the historical base rate. Every other country in history has had a complete drawdown of wealth because of war, revolution, and something. America has not.