What Yearly Computing Build Would Not Surprise Jensen Huang?

Jensen Huang says the world is running about a trillion dollars of information technology buildout each year. More gets built every year, and about every five years some equipment is depreciated, turned off, and taken offline, while some of it lasts longer. He ties the older world to a retrieval way of doing computation and a new way of doing computation. He says he predicted the path going out across three, four, and then five, and growth continues from there. If annual capacity building, infrastructure building, and refreshes of new and old machines run around $10 trillion, Jensen Huang is not even a little bit surprised.

A co-host tells listeners to think of about $4 trillion of annual spending by the end of the decade, because every time someone consumes tokens or uses intelligence, the machine has to run and the factory has to run. He puts the spending at about 50 percent. He assumes $50 trillion of global GDP is related to knowledge work. If there is a 20 percent productivity gain over five years, he says the world gets $10 trillion of incremental economic activity, and he calls the result very reasonable by 2029 or 2030. Half of the gain goes to capital spending on the intelligence that produces it. He says the productivity gains already seen inside NVIDIA are much bigger.