Smash Notes

Back to Jensen Huang | Does AI Revenue Justify Capex, '27 AI Bottlenecks, Singularity, Open vs Closed & more, with Jensen Huang & Brad Gerstner.

What Yearly Computing Build Would Not Surprise Jensen Huang?

Jensen Huang says the world is running about a trillion dollars of information technology buildout each year. More gets built every year, and about every five years some equipment is depreciated, turned off, and taken offline, while some of it lasts longer. He ties the older world to a retrieval way of doing computation and a new way of doing computation. He says he predicted the path going out across three, four, and then five, and growth continues from there. If annual capacity building, infrastructure building, and refreshes of new and old machines run around $10 trillion, Jensen Huang is not even a little bit surprised.

A co-host tells listeners to think of about $4 trillion of annual spending by the end of the decade, because every time someone consumes tokens or uses intelligence, the machine has to run and the factory has to run. He puts the spending at about 50 percent. He assumes $50 trillion of global GDP is related to knowledge work. If there is a 20 percent productivity gain over five years, he says the world gets $10 trillion of incremental economic activity, and he calls the result very reasonable by 2029 or 2030. Half of the gain goes to capital spending on the intelligence that produces it. He says the productivity gains already seen inside NVIDIA are much bigger.

Grokipedia·Jensen Huang

Transcript

Jensen Huang | Does AI Revenue Justify Capex, '27 AI Bottlenecks, Singularity, Open vs Closed & more ·

BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

More from this episode

  1. Why Did Jensen Huang's Parents Fly in Overnight?Jensen Huang says five of the six people on the medal stage were born outside the United States. He received the National Medal of Science for NVIDIA.
  2. Why Will the Cost of Intelligence Keep Falling?Jensen Huang says the last year unlocked knowledge, working memory, and tool use.
  3. Why Didn't Keynes's 15-hour Week Happen?Jensen Huang says the hope of more free time is wrong. For most people, intelligence unlocks more opportunities, and ambitious people will pursue them.
  4. Did Jensen Huang Understate Physical Artificial Intelligence?Jensen Huang says he understated the $100 billion figure. The first six months already produced $10 billion in physical artificial intelligence.
  5. How Many Computers Does Physical AI Need?Jensen Huang says building a physical artificial intelligence platform takes three computers and three complete stacks, and he says it takes three robots as…
  6. Is AI Alignment a Forever Problem?Jensen Huang says alignment is a forever problem. Safety that depends on perfect alignment never arrives. The answer is containment.
  7. How Did Nvidia's Dollars Per Gigawatt More Than Double?Jensen Huang says Nvidia's market share is still increasing even though the company is already large and the share was already very high.
  8. Why Put Nvidia Computers on Starship?Jensen Huang says NVIDIA's engineers and Elon Musk's team are designing a server that works in space and on Earth.
  9. Why Do Most AI Startups Use Open Models?Jensen Huang says the frontier labs are only part of NVIDIA's machines. He puts them at about a quarter of the compute, maybe 30 percent.
  10. Why Does Jensen Huang Expect Four Trillion a Year?Jensen Huang says that as the decade ends, yearly infrastructure build-out will probably land between three and four trillion dollars, closer to four than to…
  11. Why Can't Nvidia Fill Its Order Book?Jensen Huang says every large cloud, every neocloud, and every big manufacturer had already ordered, and so had the startups.
  12. Why Did Jensen Huang Call Specialization the Enemy?Jensen Huang says specialization is the enemy of fungibility and the enemy of durability.

People

More answers like this

The other side

More with Jensen Huang

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.