Why Can't Investors Time an IPO?

Shardul Shah says investors cannot time an IPO. He learned that from the New York Stock Exchange and its media partner: you can never time the window. When a company is in the right place at the right time, it needs the courage to take it. The window itself is outside Index's control.

Index thinks carefully about DPI, the cash it returns to limited partners, and about not getting high on its own supply. IPOs and mergers and acquisitions are the two ways that cash comes back. Mergers and acquisitions have accelerated. He points to Wiz, Cursor, and World Labs. Catalyst is active in those transactions. Public companies are buying private companies, and private companies are merging with each other at very different sizes. He calls that market healthy.

The hardest moment is a founder who believes in the company and has a real offer. Most entrepreneurs say, the first time you meet them, that they are on a mission and will never sell. Staying independent or selling is more nuanced than that line. He says the most influential investor can change shareholder value in a judgment call that has no single right answer.