What Leaked From Anthropic's Investor Day?

Jason Calacanis says Anthropic's investor day hit the AI trade in the same week as the CoreWeave selloff. Anthropic is planning to go public around Thanksgiving. Polymarket puts the chance of a listing this year at 74 percent, down from 95 percent in early September. The figures he walks through, secondhand from investors, include 16.8 billion dollars of third-quarter revenue, already more than 5 billion dollars a month, and net revenue retention of 900 percent, meaning customers spent nine times what they spent last year.

The company also described itself as free-cash-flow positive, with an adjusted gross margin of 85 percent and an adjusted operating margin of 11 percent. He notes that nobody said how the adjustments were calculated. Annual recurring revenue estimates run from 70 billion dollars, which would be flat since July, to more than 100 billion. Anthropic is aiming at a 2 trillion dollar valuation, and that number assumes violent growth.