Smash Notes

What Did Anthropic's Hiring Leak Reveal About Meta?

at 30:10

From the episode: Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate.

Answer

Azeem Azhar says Anthropic accidentally leaked one of its largest customers. Anthropic was trying to hire a mega account executive, and the posting described the customer closely enough that outsiders could triangulate the role as sales to Meta alone. Azeem Azhar says the leak put Meta at something like 10% of Anthropic revenue for 2025, and the exchange on the show confirms it.

Paul Kedrosky says that 2025 share looks backward, because Anthropic revenue in the first quarter was bigger than the entirety of last calendar year. Companies on Anthropic's scale have never gone public with so few customers. Paul Kedrosky says the list might be eight companies that make up 80% of revenue, calls the dependency historically unprecedented, and says the same concentration would have been a colossal source of risk in his equity-analyst work, since the customers are mostly using the product for writing code.

Azeem Azhar says eight customers and 80% of the business come to 10% per customer, so the split would have to be disclosed in the S-1. That makes a checkable prediction if Anthropic goes public: whether eight companies really represented 80% of the business.

Where this answer comes from

Show
The Ezra Klein Show
Episode
Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate.
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Paul Kedrosky, Azeem Azhar, Ezra Klein
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