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Back to Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate., with Paul Kedrosky & Azeem Azhar.

What Did Anthropic's Hiring Leak Reveal About Meta?

Azeem Azhar says Anthropic accidentally leaked one of its largest customers. Anthropic was trying to hire a mega account executive, and the posting described the customer closely enough that outsiders could triangulate the role as sales to Meta alone. Azeem Azhar says the leak put Meta at something like 10% of Anthropic revenue for 2025, and the exchange on the show confirms it.

Paul Kedrosky says that 2025 share looks backward, because Anthropic revenue in the first quarter was bigger than the entirety of last calendar year. Companies on Anthropic's scale have never gone public with so few customers. Paul Kedrosky says the list might be eight companies that make up 80% of revenue, calls the dependency historically unprecedented, and says the same concentration would have been a colossal source of risk in his equity-analyst work, since the customers are mostly using the product for writing code.

Azeem Azhar says eight customers and 80% of the business come to 10% per customer, so the split would have to be disclosed in the S-1. That makes a checkable prediction if Anthropic goes public: whether eight companies really represented 80% of the business.

Transcript

Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate. ·

The Ezra Klein Show

More from this episode

  1. Is OpenAI and Anthropic's Chip Revenue Share Falling?Ezra Klein asks how AI demand looks once token use is separated from the chips that serve it.
  2. Would an OpenAI Collapse Pop the Economy?Azeem Azhar says Paul Kedrosky talked about frontier models and tokens, while he talked about capital spending and the GPUs, and that the two deserve separate…
  3. How Did Apple Gain by Skipping Frontier Models?Ezra Klein says Apple decided not to compete in making a frontier model, unlike Alphabet, Google, and Meta. OpenAI and Anthropic are AI companies.
  4. How Is Wall Street Loading Debt Onto Big Tech?Ezra Klein asks whether broader society is protected because Alphabet, Meta, and the other major companies can absorb huge losses on their own balance sheets.
  5. Why Is AI Repricing Cognitive Work?Paul Kedrosky says artificial intelligence is the fastest adopting technology in history, and its fundamental function is to reprice cognitive labor.
  6. How Likely Is a Backlash Against AI?Ezra Klein says discontinuous regulation is quite likely.
  7. How Few Jobs Does a Huge Data Center Create?Azeem Azhar says a huge data center may cost billions of dollars and still employ a handful of people.
  8. Which Books Do Paul Kedrosky and Azeem Azhar Recommend?Ezra Klein asks each guest for three books. Paul Kedrosky recommends Middlemarch, about normal people swept along as a technology revolution takes hold.

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