When Did Scott Nolan Believe SpaceX Would Win?

Scott Nolan felt high certainty, by the end of his first week or month as an intern at SpaceX, that SpaceX would eventually win. The company then had under 50 people and was at most a thousandth the size. The reason was the speed of execution.

He walked away with the lesson after Boeing, and it was still fresh in the early years at Founders Fund. Small teams can look completely outmatched and still beat incumbents by moving quickly with a good group of people. The speed is a reason to stay optimistic about the odds of a five person startup and to bet on the small team.

The bet fits when the founders have a vision, insights about how they want to do the work differently, and a motive beyond standing up a small business. They want to change things for the long term. The three examples were SpaceX, Anduril, and General Matter.