Smash Notes

Back to Inside Anthropic’s trillion-dollar AI gamble, with Joey Brookhart.

Why Does Anthropic's S-1 Show an $80 Billion Loss?

Joey Brookhart says Anthropic's $80 billion loss is a non-cash charge for warrants and convertible notes after the valuation jumped, not cash missing from the business. Nilay Patel raises the figure because it dominated comment sections the day before. Investors would back the charge out. It sits apart from stock-based compensation, where employee shares still hit the income statement even though no cash leaves the bank. Someone who does not know the accounting can read the number as bad news. It is there because Anthropic has grown and the valuation has risen so much. Amazon is the other party on those instruments. Amazon gains because Anthropic is buying a lot of AWS and because the valuation is higher, and Amazon is diluted as Anthropic goes public, sells shares, and keeps raising money.

Cash actually burned is $10 billion. Cash and marketable securities are more than $120 billion, with probably another $100 billion after the IPO. Anthropic rents compute instead of laying out that capital itself. Tech companies dilute. An investor who accepts the long-term AGI case, and expects Anthropic to lead, is looking at a business Brookhart puts above $10 trillion, large enough to outrun dilution. Major labs, hyperscalers, Broadcom, and Nvidia backstop many of the deals.

Transcript

Inside Anthropic’s trillion-dollar AI gamble ·

Decoder with Nilay Patel

More from this episode

  1. What Is Anthropic's Annual Recurring Revenue?Joey Brookhart says Anthropic's S-1 shows a company that scaled, with capital efficiency, to a valuation above a trillion dollars and more than $70 billion in…
  2. How Did Anthropic's Inference Margins Turn Positive?Joey Brookhart says Anthropic's gross margin on inference went from negative 94% two years ago to positive 85% now.
  3. Why Does 80% of Anthropic's Revenue Come From New Models?Joey Brookhart says 80% of Anthropic's revenue in the last three months came from models released in the last six months.
  4. Does the AI Industry Follow Apple's iPhone Playbook?Nilay Patel says the AI industry does not follow Apple's iPhone playbook.
  5. Can Anthropic Pay for Its Compute Commitments?Joey Brookhart says Anthropic can cover its compute commitments with revenue. Nilay Patel cites an analysis above $800 billion over 10 years.
  6. How Do OpenAI's Margins Compare With Anthropic's?Joey Brookhart says OpenAI's margins do not look like Anthropic's.
  7. Why Did Anthropic's Third Quarter Slow Down?Joey Brookhart says Anthropic's third quarter slowed because Meta, probably more than 10% of revenue, cut Claude Code seats from 60,000 to 30,000, and because…

People

More answers like this

The other side

More with Nilay Patel

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.