What Are the Odds of a Tesla and SpaceX Merger?

Ed Elson says prediction-market traders put the odds of a Tesla and SpaceX merger before 2028 at 81%. He says Elon Musk confirmed that special committees at both companies are studying a deal, and he quotes Musk that there is a lot of merit to combining the companies because they are pretty much in the superintelligence singularity. Ed Elson puts SpaceX at $2 trillion and Tesla at $1.5 trillion and guesses the combination would be a $3.5 trillion company.

Scott Galloway says that 81% is the wrong question. He puts an 80% chance on the boards approving the deal and calls the vote a formality, because on decisions that involve Tesla or SpaceX the bride, the groom, and the officiant are the same person, checking an SEC box.

Scott Galloway also flags what he calls a real existential risk to Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Tesla. If Democrats take the House and the Senate on November 4, he expects subpoenas and calls to testify, and he says there is bipartisan anger about Musk throttling back Starlink in Ukraine. He says he will come back to that.