What Will Set Anthropic's IPO Price?

Chamath Palihapitiya says leaks before November 20 will set Anthropic's real price more than anything else. The figure put to the panel was $1.4 trillion, a 17x multiple of the current run rate. He says Anthropic is raising somewhere between $230 billion and $300 billion to get through the next few weeks and months and whatever the economy does next, and that the sale is already six times oversubscribed, so it gets done.

Only 20% of the value, in his account, will come from Anthropic itself. The other 80% depends on the broad economy, and that portion is entirely about AI and entirely about Nvidia. With what he calls the Bank of Nvidia closed, and with investigations underway, buyers have to decide whether the balance of risks has passed or more shoes will drop. More shoes, he says, push people risk-off and make them more cautious about any new listing, Anthropic included.

The sale still has to happen. What buyers pay, he says, depends on what gets leaked before November 20.