How Does One Nvidia Dollar Become $18?

David Friedberg says a dollar Nvidia spends turns into $18 that Anthropic makes selling to customers. Each dollar of Nvidia cost becomes $4 of Nvidia revenue, a 75% margin. SpaceX then runs about an 83% margin on the chip spend by spreading the hardware over five years. Colossus 1 cost $10 billion, so the yearly depreciation is $2 billion, while Colossus brings in $1.25 billion a month. Anthropic's S-1 shows about an 85% incremental gross margin on every new dollar of revenue.

The customer ramp behind that margin is still early. Customers spending $100,000 or more went from 200 at the end of 2024, to 1,500 at the end of 2025, to 11,900 at the end of September. In the US, about 200,000 to 300,000 businesses can treat a $100,000 annual spend as less than 1% of total spend. Globally the count is a bit over a million. He puts Anthropic at about 1% of that addressable base.