Why Does Jensen Huang Expect Four Trillion a Year?

Jensen Huang says that as the decade ends, yearly infrastructure build-out will probably land between three and four trillion dollars, closer to four than to three. One and a half trillion of the yearly total is compute alone. A co-host says continued online shopping is a third of the build-out, tells Jensen Huang to take a third of his business to the bank, and says the share is beyond debate, so a third of the build-out is going to occur.

Compute was half a trillion dollars a year before artificial intelligence. Jensen Huang says that over six, seven, or eight years the half trillion became one and a half trillion because the world is consuming more compute. Moore's law is over. Waiting one year once bought twice as many transistors at the same price. Twice as many transistors now costs twice as much no matter how long you wait. Whatever computing capacity the world wants every single year, twice as much capacity means paying twice as much. On top of the half trillion already growing because the world can use more and more digital technology, he says the spending needs an extra factor because Moore's law is over.

Even without artificial intelligence, Jensen Huang says the semiconductor industry was on its path to become the largest industry in the world. He mentioned the claim long ago, people forgot, and he said it two years ago.