Smash Notes

Back to Can AI Keep Growing Exponentially? Let’s Ask SemiAnalysis — With Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos, with Dylan Patel & Jordan Nanos.

How Big Is Next Year's AI Capital Spending?

Dylan Patel says next year's capital spending for the AI build-out in the United States is on the order of $2 trillion. The figure counts data centers and chips and also the rest of the supply chain people are investing in. Gross domestic product is close to $30 trillion, so the spending comes to about 5 or 6 percent, not 3 or 2 percent.

A chart comparing the build-out with railroads and highways put the median year at about 3.6 percent of gross domestic product, versus 2.2 percent for the railroads, which would already make the AI build-out about 50 percent larger as a share of the economy. The published figures are still lower than the actual pace, because they understate capital spending underway in the United States, North America, and the world.

Grokipedia·Dylan Patel·United States

Transcript

Can AI Keep Growing Exponentially? Let’s Ask SemiAnalysis — With Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos ·

Big Technology Podcast

More from this episode

  1. Can AI Infrastructure Spending Keep Growing Exponentially?Dylan Patel says AI capital spending cannot keep compounding at triple-digit rates from here. The build-out runs out of things to organize.
  2. How Much Revenue Does $1 Trillion of AI Data Center Spending Need?Dylan Patel says a trillion dollars spent today on an AI data center and GPUs needs about $1.5 trillion of revenue over six years if payback is a straight…
  3. Is Anthropic Profitable After Compute Costs?Dylan Patel says Anthropic is now profitable once revenue is set against compute cost, with training and inference combined.
  4. Will AI Replace Knowledge Work in the Next Few Years?Dylan Patel says AI will not replace knowledge work in the next few years.
  5. Can Hyperscalers Cancel Neocloud Contracts Each Month?Jordan Nanos says hyperscalers and large frontier labs signing neocloud contracts generally do not have a right to cancel every month and walk away.
  6. Could Anthropic Be Worth $10 Trillion?Dylan Patel says Anthropic could be the first company in the world with a $10 trillion valuation, and the bullish case also reaches $20 trillion.
  7. How Much Is Nvidia Backstopping Neoclouds?Jordan Nanos says SemiAnalysis is tracking $588 billion of off-balance-sheet backstops that Nvidia is supporting.
  8. Can Open-source Models Hack a Neocloud?Dylan Patel says most neoclouds have terrible security, and open-source models can hack one or reach other customers' data on it.
  9. Why Did Oracle's New Mexico AI Data Center Slip?Dylan Patel says Oracle's New Mexico data center slipped because the pipelines were not going to arrive, and the site cannot be built without them.
  10. Why Do So Many Neoclouds Fail ClusterMax?Jordan Nanos says most neoclouds still miss the ClusterMax bar because a seller's market rewards raising money, building data centers, and deploying chips…
  11. Which AI Lab Has the Least Compute?Dylan Patel says DeepMind has the least compute of Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepMind by the end of the year.
  12. Why Do AI Labs Keep Their Best Models Internal?Dylan Patel says frontier labs are keeping months of new-model progress inside the company, because once a model is public other people can distill it.

People

More answers like this

More with Alex Kantrowitz

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Note

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.