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Back to Can AI Keep Growing Exponentially? Let’s Ask SemiAnalysis — With Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos, with Dylan Patel & Jordan Nanos.

Which AI Lab Has the Least Compute?

Dylan Patel says DeepMind has the least compute of Anthropic, OpenAI, and DeepMind by the end of the year. Google is producing significantly more compute year on year, but the amount going to DeepMind is not rising as fast. The percentage allocated to model training and deployment has fallen over time, and the last six months received less than two or three years ago.

Google's business model is evolving so the company can make money at every layer of the stack. Google is physically selling a lot of chips, including TPUs, to Anthropic rather than only renting them out, and helping Anthropic on that scale hurts DeepMind. Gemini needs a niche that drives token sales, because nobody wants the third or fourth or fifth best coding model. Even with the Gemini 4 Argon release, Gemini is not there on coding compared with the top two or three.

Next year OpenAI and Anthropic each attempt to add 5 to 10 gigawatts of additional compute for their labs, while Google adds only a few gigawatts. Google was way ahead in compute and only a little behind on models, and has now fallen further behind. Catching up is possible if DeepMind reorganizes around the talent it still has, while more of the best people keep getting poached to Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta.

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Transcript

Can AI Keep Growing Exponentially? Let’s Ask SemiAnalysis — With Dylan Patel and Jordan Nanos ·

Big Technology Podcast

More from this episode

  1. How Big Is Next Year's AI Capital Spending?Dylan Patel says next year's capital spending for the AI build-out in the United States is on the order of $2 trillion.
  2. Can AI Infrastructure Spending Keep Growing Exponentially?Dylan Patel says AI capital spending cannot keep compounding at triple-digit rates from here. The build-out runs out of things to organize.
  3. How Much Revenue Does $1 Trillion of AI Data Center Spending Need?Dylan Patel says a trillion dollars spent today on an AI data center and GPUs needs about $1.5 trillion of revenue over six years if payback is a straight…
  4. Is Anthropic Profitable After Compute Costs?Dylan Patel says Anthropic is now profitable once revenue is set against compute cost, with training and inference combined.
  5. Will AI Replace Knowledge Work in the Next Few Years?Dylan Patel says AI will not replace knowledge work in the next few years.
  6. Can Hyperscalers Cancel Neocloud Contracts Each Month?Jordan Nanos says hyperscalers and large frontier labs signing neocloud contracts generally do not have a right to cancel every month and walk away.
  7. Could Anthropic Be Worth $10 Trillion?Dylan Patel says Anthropic could be the first company in the world with a $10 trillion valuation, and the bullish case also reaches $20 trillion.
  8. How Much Is Nvidia Backstopping Neoclouds?Jordan Nanos says SemiAnalysis is tracking $588 billion of off-balance-sheet backstops that Nvidia is supporting.
  9. Can Open-source Models Hack a Neocloud?Dylan Patel says most neoclouds have terrible security, and open-source models can hack one or reach other customers' data on it.
  10. Why Did Oracle's New Mexico AI Data Center Slip?Dylan Patel says Oracle's New Mexico data center slipped because the pipelines were not going to arrive, and the site cannot be built without them.
  11. Why Do So Many Neoclouds Fail ClusterMax?Jordan Nanos says most neoclouds still miss the ClusterMax bar because a seller's market rewards raising money, building data centers, and deploying chips…
  12. Why Do AI Labs Keep Their Best Models Internal?Dylan Patel says frontier labs are keeping months of new-model progress inside the company, because once a model is public other people can distill it.

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