Smash Notes
Kalshi vs. Everyone: Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara on the lawsuits and the long game
Prediction markets incentivize truth. Everything else incentivizes clickbait. That's the core argument Luana Lopes Lara makes for Kalshi — the prediction market platform she co-founded that has gone from $5 billion to $22 billion in valuation in under a year, and is now being sued by New York's attorney general for $36 billion. Luana joins Rapid Response…
People
Notes
-
Kalshi grows a lot because an exchange provides a fairer more accessible and more transparent way to trade than a sports book. Users on Kalshi trade against each other while Kalshi collects a transaction fee. Sports books make money equal to customer losses so their incentives differ completely from Kalshi.
Kalshi needs national liquidity for the market to work well. Trading only in one state like the New York Stock Exchange limited to New York would create significantly worse prices and low liquidity. Kalshi does not trade against users or make money when people lose so the company wants winners to increase price competition. Sports books cap winners and hold a monopoly on pricing so they can adjust margins after a bad month. Federal regulation for exchanges developed separately because the mechanics differ so much from gambling operations.
Users see all prices and the order book in real time on Kalshi. Consumers choose what serves them better.