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Back to Kalshi vs. Everyone: Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara on the lawsuits and the long game, with Luana Lopes Lara.

Why Did Kalshi Refund the Iran Leader Bets?

Kalshi listed a contract on whether Iran's supreme leader would die or be removed from power, then had to backpedal and reimburse more than two million dollars to users. Kalshi is federally regulated and does not allow markets on war, terrorism, or assassination. The Maduro contract was listed for the same reason: a person can leave power in more than one way, and the departure had a clear economic impact, including the price of oil.

Kalshi let the market operate, and voids every trade if the outcome is an assassination or terrorism so nobody can profit from it. Luana Lopes Lara said Kalshi did not do a good enough job in the product explaining how voiding would work, and users got confused. After the Iran contract, Kalshi got more selective about what it lists.

Transcript

Kalshi vs. Everyone: Co-Founder Luana Lopes Lara on the lawsuits and the long game ·

Masters of Scale

More from this episode

  1. How Did Kalshi Jump From Five to 22 Billion?Kalshi looks sudden, and Luana Lopes Lara ties the growth to eight years of work.
  2. Why Is New York Suing Kalshi for 36 Billion Dollars?A federal appeals court had just said Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi through their gambling laws.
  3. Why Does Kalshi Run an Exchange Instead of a Sports Book?Kalshi grows a lot because an exchange provides a fairer more accessible and more transparent way to trade than a sports book.
  4. Why Did DraftKings Report No Overlap With Prediction Markets?DraftKings and FanDuel look at Kalshi as competition even when the engine underneath works differently. The house always wins is not how an exchange works.
  5. Why Do Most Kalshi Visitors Look Without Trading?A report said seventy percent of visitors to Kalshi look at the data and do not put money behind a prediction.

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