Why Will Frontier AI Take a Decade or Two to Spread Through Companies?

Jonathan Siddharth expects a slow takeoff. Over the next decade or two, frontier models become more powerful and more useful, and the technology still takes time to spread through companies.

He sets that view between two louder camps in Silicon Valley. One expects a fast takeoff, with a risk of losing control in two years and with AI exceeding human intelligence at everything. The other thinks the boom is hype and that nothing will happen. He does not take either side. The capability is already ahead of what a company can absorb, a gap he calls model capability overhang. Real work is messy. Someone starting a job often does not know where the information is, who to talk to, or which file holds the context, and a manager's task is often vague. The person has to go gather that context before the work can start. He still thinks the next 10 years will be the brightest for technology yet.