How Much Bigger Will Robotics Be Than Coding Agents?
Naveen Rao thinks robotics is going to be 100 times larger than agentic coding. The world is still scratching the surface of how to see the output of intelligence, and the physical world is a place intelligence has not entered at all.
Industrial robotics to date are not really intelligent. They are rote. A known way to do a task gets built in, and the machine repeats it, which is not novel problem solving. Physical problem solving arrives in the not distant future. Imagine billions of robots roaming around and solving problems dynamically. Something breaks, a robot cleans it up or replaces it. The cost of cleaning everything up, building new buildings, and solving physical problems will not drop to zero. It will greatly reduce. The market will be enormous, much bigger than the virtual world today.
The robotics application layer is not the place to invest yet. The bet is the technology stack. Companies building the models have not figured out what they are going to look like when they grow up, and the value will not sit in the model. He is investing in companies that build models, and they will probably end up building end to end devices. They will build the robot with a model that does one job very well and sell them together. The model and the robot go together, with no separation.
