Why Is Today's Venture Market Not a Repeat of 2021?
David Tisch says the venture market now has nothing to do with 2021. It is a standalone condition, funky and interesting and maybe frothy or insane, that investors have to read on its own terms.
He has done early stage investing for 17 years. People keep forcing the present onto an older cycle, and he rejects the 2021 comparison because 2021 had its own macro and micro drivers. Going back through 18, 15, and 2010, each moment was different. He can argue the job has totally changed and, equally, that the job is still whatever the current market presents: see and meet great founders, decide whether to invest, and beg them to take the money.
Harry Stebbings calls 2021 bubble-like, a good time to sell and a bad time to buy, with no fundamental technology innovation and only short-term behavior change from COVID. Tisch refuses the simple split between real craziness and a market that is still early. Every moment has good companies and bad companies. For an early stage investor, the macro is less impactful than the micro. What matters is whether the company is the good one, the great one, or the most important one. Company quality transcends the macro, which he treats as portfolio analysis.