When Could a Quantum Computer Break Today's Encryption?

Arvind Krishna puts a working quantum computer that breaks today's cryptography at 2030. The debate he describes is 2028, 2029, or 2033, and he takes the middle of that range.

A machine on that timeline will break today's cryptography. Krishna says the break is not a supposition. If an encrypted hard disk is stolen today, somebody could keep it for five years and break it then. Post-quantum cryptography is understood, the code is written, and he says people have been too lazy to move to it.

DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative started with a couple of hundred companies. Krishna says about 13 are left. Some of that work is real and some of it is not quite real. The goal is a quantum computer that works.