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Back to Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora: Quantum Threat, Open vs Frontier AI, AI Cyber Warfare & SaaS Collapse, with Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora.

When Could a Quantum Computer Break Today's Encryption?

Arvind Krishna puts a working quantum computer that breaks today's cryptography at 2030. The debate he describes is 2028, 2029, or 2033, and he takes the middle of that range.

A machine on that timeline will break today's cryptography. Krishna says the break is not a supposition. If an encrypted hard disk is stolen today, somebody could keep it for five years and break it then. Post-quantum cryptography is understood, the code is written, and he says people have been too lazy to move to it.

DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative started with a couple of hundred companies. Krishna says about 13 are left. Some of that work is real and some of it is not quite real. The goal is a quantum computer that works.

Transcript

Arvind Krishna & Nikesh Arora: Quantum Threat, Open vs Frontier AI, AI Cyber Warfare & SaaS Collapse ·

All-In

More from this episode

  1. Should Teams Use the Best AI Model First?Nikesh Arora says that in the experimentation phase a company should use the best model it can find, in the easiest way.
  2. How Often Are AI-found Code Flaws Real?Nikesh Arora says a model that has learned what good code looks like can also point at bad code. Attackers only need one real vulnerability.
  3. Will Agent-written Code Beat Human-written Code?Arvind Krishna says agent-written code will be superior to human-written code.
  4. Will Every State Ban Data Centers?Arvind Krishna says there is no chance all 50 states will ban data centers. A ban in 30 states is possible, and the remaining 20 would rub their hands in glee.
  5. Why Will Enterprise Software Vendors Consolidate?Nikesh Arora says there is going to be a huge disruption in the SaaS space over the next few years. Arvind Krishna builds on that point.
  6. Can AI Software Replace a Bank Lookup?Arvind Krishna says replacing a database lookup for retail banking, or the work of closing the books, with AI-generated software is going to be hard.

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