Will OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Become Trillion-dollar Companies?

Kevin Roose says OpenAI will make it, Anthropic will make it, and Google will make it. Asked whether that means trillion-dollar successes with more than one AGI, he says yes. He expects those three and maybe one or two others, and he says making it will not mean the same thing for each of them.

He does not expect a singleton, the theory that one AGI then stops every other lab from building one, including by melting their chips. He expects a small handful. The reason he gives is network effects and winner-take-most markets: one or two big enterprise AI companies, and one or two big consumer AI companies. That is his forecast, not a claim that the race is already decided.