Can Prediction Markets Help Choose Government Policy?

Brian Armstrong says a prediction market can help choose a government policy by asking what the unemployment rate would be in one year, two years, and three years if that policy went into effect.

Inside the Coinbase app, he says the markets are growing very fast. Within months of launching, they hit about a $100 million revenue run rate, a figure he believes the company shared on its last earnings call, with growth over 100% quarter over quarter, though he would have to check the exact number. Sports has been part of the volume, and he calls that entertainment worth celebrating. Elections have already traded. Questions with no resolution date, such as whether there is a God or whether humans were designed by evolution or intelligent design, are closer to opinion markets. A stock has no resolution date either, and people still bet on whether it will do better or worse.