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Back to What will computer chips look like in 2045?, with Chris Auth & Kevin Fischer.

Why Can't Chip Fabs 10x Wafer Output for AI?

Pushkar Ranade, Intel's CTO, says the world's chip tools can about double leading-edge wafer output, not multiply it by ten, even if AI labs want far more chips.

ASML produces fewer than 100 extreme ultraviolet machines a year and does not plan to build significantly more than 100 a year by the end of the decade. That supply is split across Intel, TSMC, and memory makers such as SK Hynix. EUV is the bigger bottleneck, and it is not the only one. Once a flow such as Intel 18A is locked, the fab needs that specific tool from that supplier. Going from 18A to 14A, about 80 percent of the tool set can be reused, and the denser node still needs some new tools. Even with unlimited capital, extra wafers from the tools already installed would be incremental, because yield is already high and each extra 1 percent is hard.

Dwarkesh Patel puts AI compute growth at about 3x a year for a decade, and Ranade says that pace cannot continue unless the equipment suppliers, and their suppliers, all produce more.

Transcript

What will computer chips look like in 2045? ·

Dwarkesh Podcast

More from this episode

  1. Why Did Intel's 10 Nanometer Node Slip?Chris Auth says Intel's 10 nanometer node slipped because the targets were more aggressive than historical scaling, and extreme ultraviolet lithography was…
  2. What Is a Gate-all-around Transistor?Dwarkesh Patel says a gate-all-around transistor slices the silicon channel into thin ribbons and wraps the gate completely around each ribbon, so the gate…
  3. Why Does high-NA EUV Pay Off for Intel and Not TSMC?Chris Auth says high-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography pays off for Intel, and not yet for TSMC, because Intel's backside power relaxes the front-side wiring…
  4. What Will Computer Chips Look Like in 2045?Chris Auth says chips in 2045 can be exotic three-dimensional structures, with transistors floating in the interconnect and stacked the way memory already…
  5. Why Can't Logic Chips Stack Like Memory?Chris Auth says logic chips cannot stack like memory because logic uses more power and the heat has no clear way out.
  6. What Is an Intel Hotbox?Kevin Fischer says an Intel hotbox is a priority grade for one lot, a block of silicon, so that lot races through the fab ahead of everything else.
  7. Why Would Ruthenium Replace Copper Chip Wires?Jack Kavalieros says ruthenium can replace copper on the tightest chip wires because ruthenium can be etched and does not need the liner copper requires, so…
  8. How Small Can Hybrid Bonding Get?Tyler Osborne says hybrid bonding still has a long runway: first-level interconnect was a 130 to 150 micrometer pitch fifteen years ago, Intel ships 25…
  9. How Does Intel Plan to Catch Up to TSMC?Pushkar Ranade says Intel's catch-up with TSMC is a scale problem, not a missing generation of transistor technology.
  10. Why Will Intel Buy More Chipmaking Tools?Pushkar Ranade says Intel will invest more in chipmaking tools, and would have bought more a year ago if today's AI demand had been clear then.

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