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Back to Martin Casado on Frontier Model Economics, AI's Slowdown, and the Cursor Deal, with Martin Casado.

What Does Martin Casado Believe About Private Market Money?

Martin Casado believes money put into private markets grows private markets. Capital creates opportunities, markets, and value, so extra funding does not mean private markets are overfunded.

A common view holds that venture capital is not an asset class, that only 20 startups matter, and that too much money going in overfunds private markets. Over the last 20 years far more money has entered private markets, and the value has kept pace through massive private companies, many opportunities, and very large exits. Venture investors create value because technology creates value, and putting more money in makes private markets grow. The opposite mindset is surprisingly common. A senior GP who has invested for 20 years will say there is too much money. More money has already gone into private markets, and the need is more ecosystem, more value, and more investment. Money in private markets creates the investable market, and there is more opportunity to deploy money now than ever before. When more private money is available, companies can skip going public.

Technology creates value, and with AI, capital lets technology create value. More money in private markets should be deployed so value gets created.

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Transcript

Martin Casado on Frontier Model Economics, AI's Slowdown, and the Cursor Deal ·

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

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  1. What Are the Four Venture Investing Mindsets?Martin Casado names four mindsets people bring to venture and private-market tech investing: a traditional finance mindset, productive investors, frontier…
  2. What Does Martin Casado Think of Network Effects?Martin Casado calls the fuss over network effects a personal annoyance and a pedantic habit. Defensibility is not really worth talking about most of the time.
  3. Why Do Traditional Investors Miss Disruptive Technology?Martin Casado says traditional investors miss disruptive technology because they judge revenue quality before anyone knows the pricing model.
  4. How Do Frontier AI Models Keep Pricing Power?Martin Casado says frontier AI models keep pricing power because the market is still large and growing, and buyers want the smartest model.
  5. Why Do Startups Always Buy the Smartest AI Model?Martin Casado says two competing startups never pick a dumber model to get ahead.
  6. Was Early Internet Security Worse Than Now?Martin Casado lived through the early internet on the ground, with formal studies in security, and the era was way worse than the breaches happening now.
  7. What Is the Mythical Man Month?Martin Casado says the mythical man month means you cannot increase the speed of engineering by adding people.
  8. What Was Larry Page Asked About Orbital Compute?Martin Casado heard that someone asked Larry Page how much compute will be orbital.
  9. How Did the Cursor Deal Come Together?Martin Casado says the Cursor deal came together off a raise that was already closing, once building models required compute few people have.
  10. Has Software Become a Capital Problem?Martin Casado believes software has become a capital problem, and he treats the shift as industrial-revolution scale.

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