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Who Makes Money When AI Intelligence Gets Cheap? · Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Cliff Sosin - Owning the Complements to Intelligence

Cliff Sosin is the founder of CAS Investment Partners, which he started in 2012. Roughly 80% of his portfolio is in Carvana. We discuss why Cliff thinks there are hard limits to what even the smartest AI can predict, which businesses benefit as intelligence gets cheap, and what that means for Meta and the frontier labs. We also cover why he avoids…

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Notes

  1. Why Can't Even Superintelligent AI Predict the Future? at 4:14

    Cliff Sosin says even superintelligent AI cannot predict most of what people want to know, because complex systems amplify tiny errors until a forecast falls… Full answer

  2. Who Makes Money When AI Intelligence Gets Cheap? at 8:01

    Cliff Sosin says the businesses that benefit when intelligence gets cheap own the complements to intelligence, not the intelligence itself. Full answer

  3. When Do Price Cuts Shrink a Market? at 17:25

    Cliff Sosin says a market shrinks once further price cuts stop creating enough demand, and a price of zero takes the market size to zero. Full answer

  4. When Does AI Reach Its Limit? at 18:58

    Cliff Sosin says the limit arrives after the papers are finished. Full answer

  5. Why Does AI Infrastructure Get Overbuilt? at 26:20

    Cliff Sosin says AI infrastructure gets pushed until it is overbuilt because a strong price signal is what makes a buildout of a huge technology possible at… Full answer

  6. Will AI Agents Push Customers to the Lowest-cost Provider? at 30:21

    Cliff Sosin says that once people hand routine choices to an AI agent, the customer moves to the lowest-cost provider. He puts decisions on a spectrum. Full answer

  7. Does a Person Working With an AI Model Beat a Person or a Model Alone? at 33:18

    Cliff Sosin says a person working with a model now beats either one alone. Full answer

  8. How Much of the Economy Moved Into AI? at 38:00

    Cliff Sosin says American capital markets redeployed 3% of GDP into a highly speculative AI venture on the turn of a dime. Full answer

  9. How Does Cheap AI Affect Income? at 49:42

    Cliff Sosin tells two stories about how cheap, ubiquitous intelligence affects wealth and income distribution. Full answer

  10. Why Is Cliff Sosin Comfortable With 80% of His Portfolio in Carvana? at 53:34

    Cliff Sosin is comfortable keeping most of his portfolio in Carvana because he thinks about the stake the way an owner thinks about a company, not the way a… Full answer

  11. Why Should Kids Learn Math Without AI? at 58:16

    Cliff Sosin argues that children should learn foundational skills apart from models so they can direct a model. Full answer

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