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Why Do Republicans Lose When Donald Trump Is Not on the Ballot? · The Ezra Klein Show

The Ezra Klein Show

Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm

“If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era,” Nate Silver told me. The midterms are a week away, and it looks entirely possible that Democrats will win not just the House, but also the Senate. Democrats are polling competitively deep into red territory – Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa…

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Notes

  1. Why Does Nate Silver Call the 2026 Midterm Momentous? at 2:33

    Nate Silver says this midterm feels momentous because a result in line with the polls would mark the end of the Trump era. Full answer

  2. Why Can Democrats Win Senate Races in States Donald Trump Won? at 4:22

    Nate Silver says the Senate map opened because the story after 2024 was wrong, not because midterms stopped punishing the president's party. Full answer

  3. Have Midterm Polls Underestimated Donald Trump? at 17:59

    Nate Silver says midterm polls have not consistently underestimated Donald Trump. Full answer

  4. Why Do Some Midterm Polls Look Better for Democrats? at 24:58

    Nate Silver says asking people whether they will vote, and how enthusiastic they are about voting, produces a very Democratic sample. Full answer

  5. How Many House Seats Would Democrats Gain? at 33:58

    Nate Silver says a model with a 90% plus chance of Democrats winning the House still translates into only about 22 seats on average. Full answer

  6. How Did Florida Become So Red? at 36:09

    Nate Silver puts Florida’s turn toward the Republicans at 75 percent migration and 25 percent a death spiral for the Democratic Party, a spiral he says might… Full answer

  7. Why Do Republicans Lose When Donald Trump Is Not on the Ballot? at 38:36

    Nate Silver says Republicans lose the elections where Donald Trump is the dominant figure but is not himself on the ballot. Full answer

  8. What Has Pulled Down Donald Trump's Approval? at 40:52

    Nate Silver says Donald Trump's approval in the second term tracks gas prices. Full answer

  9. What Is Nate Silver's Gut on the 2026 Midterms? at 50:30

    Nate Silver's gut on the midterms is contradictory. Full answer

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