What Is Nate Silver's Gut on the 2026 Midterms?

Nate Silver's gut on the midterms is contradictory. Fundamental conditions feel terrible for Republicans, and if the year is worse for them than 2018, Democrats win the House popular vote by 10 or 11 points. He worries more that state polls are wrong than that the national race is miscalibrated.

Before the 2024 election his model had Kamala Harris winning and his gut had Donald Trump winning. In 2024 he listed 21 reasons the political environment favored Donald Trump and only four or five reasons it favored Harris. The midterm year reverses the balance. Republicans have a second-term 80-year-old president who had a bad midterm in 2018, when he was younger, more popular, and the economy was perceived as better. Iran, Jeffrey Epstein, corruption in the White House, and a strong batch of Democratic candidates make the year look worse for Republicans than 2018, which is where the 10 or 11 point House margin comes from.

The hedge is emotional. It would be more embarrassing for pollsters, forecasters, and pundits if Republicans again beat their polls in the Midwest. He is a little skeptical of Kansas, Iowa, and that tier of states.