Why Do Republicans Lose When Donald Trump Is Not on the Ballot?

Nate Silver says Republicans lose the elections where Donald Trump is the dominant figure but is not himself on the ballot. Trump can get disengaged voters to crawl over glass for him, and those same voters will not do that for Roger Marshall or Ken Paxton. The pattern runs through 2018, the Georgia runoffs, special elections, and 2022, when something kept Joe Biden from the wipeout a weak approval rating would usually bring.

Trump has not cleared that problem away. Ezra Klein noted that Trump could have ended the Texas primary and left John Cornyn the nominee, which would have put Republicans in a stronger position and made a Senate loss less likely. Trump's account of a midterm defeat is that he is not on the ballot, and he has promised every American a $5,000 check if Republicans win. He will take a victory that congratulates him. He will not give other Republicans distance from him. Most of what he has done in office has run through executive power, not Congress.