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Back to Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm, with Nate Silver.

How Did Florida Become So Red?

Nate Silver puts Florida’s turn toward the Republicans at 75 percent migration and 25 percent a death spiral for the Democratic Party, a spiral he says might reinforce itself.

Florida is unusual in offering blue-state amenities without as many liberals, and the mix has always attracted older people. A lot of the shift is political self-selection.

In most states, voter registration has begun to favor Democrats over Republicans again after four or five years in a row when it did not. Comebacks for Democrats are showing up in the Midwest in particular, and in Pennsylvania, but not in Florida. Florida keeps getting redder at the registration level.

Grokipedia·Florida·Nate Silver

Transcript

Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm ·

The Ezra Klein Show

More from this episode

  1. Why Does Nate Silver Call the 2026 Midterm Momentous?Nate Silver says this midterm feels momentous because a result in line with the polls would mark the end of the Trump era.
  2. Why Can Democrats Win Senate Races in States Donald Trump Won?Nate Silver says the Senate map opened because the story after 2024 was wrong, not because midterms stopped punishing the president's party.
  3. Have Midterm Polls Underestimated Donald Trump?Nate Silver says midterm polls have not consistently underestimated Donald Trump.
  4. Why Do Some Midterm Polls Look Better for Democrats?Nate Silver says asking people whether they will vote, and how enthusiastic they are about voting, produces a very Democratic sample.
  5. How Many House Seats Would Democrats Gain?Nate Silver says a model with a 90% plus chance of Democrats winning the House still translates into only about 22 seats on average.
  6. Why Do Republicans Lose When Donald Trump Is Not on the Ballot?Nate Silver says Republicans lose the elections where Donald Trump is the dominant figure but is not himself on the ballot.
  7. What Has Pulled Down Donald Trump's Approval?Nate Silver says Donald Trump's approval in the second term tracks gas prices.
  8. What Is Nate Silver's Gut on the 2026 Midterms?Nate Silver's gut on the midterms is contradictory.

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