Smash Notes

Back to Anthropic S-1 Shocker, Greatest Business Ever? Google's $500B Wipeout, Midterm Predictions.

How Did Microsoft Nearly Double Revenue?

Chamath Palihapitiya says Microsoft's revenue went from $198 billion to $332 billion in the last four years while staff increased by only 2,000 people. Headcount stayed flat. Before AI, getting close to doubling revenue at that scale would have meant headcount doubled too.

Microsoft just offered people a chance to leave, and the offer reached as many as 60,000 people. Headcount could land under 200,000 depending on how many take it. The pattern is not job loss. Revenue rose while the amount of human input stayed the same, which is a productivity gain. The chart is his picture of what AI can do at that scale: a business close to twice the size, produced by roughly the same number of people.

Transcript

Anthropic S-1 Shocker, Greatest Business Ever? Google's $500B Wipeout, Midterm Predictions ·

All-In

More from this episode

  1. What Does Anthropic's S-1 Reveal?Jason Calacanis says Anthropic's S-1 targets a $100 billion public offering, large enough to pass SpaceX and rank as the largest ever.
  2. Is Anthropic's $80 Billion Loss Real?David Sacks says the widely reported $80 billion Anthropic loss is a phantom number, not a cash loss.
  3. How Does One Nvidia Dollar Become $18?David Friedberg says a dollar Nvidia spends turns into $18 that Anthropic makes selling to customers.
  4. What Is Anthropic's Biggest Risk?Chamath Palihapitiya says Ant's biggest risk is compute, and the biggest piece of that problem is data centers, then the financing commitments, then power.
  5. How Big Can Anthropic Revenue Get?Chamath Palihapitiya says Anthropic can become a revenue business in the hundreds of billions of dollars within about three to seven years if it reaches 25 or…
  6. How Much Debt Does the AI Complex Owe?Chamath Palihapitiya says the AI complex now owes $340 to $400 billion to the market, and the entire United States economy is levered to that complex.
  7. Why Will Governments Regulate AI Compute?David Friedberg argues that governments will regulate AI compute and assign who gets access to how much of it.
  8. Why Does the AI Complex Compete With Treasuries?Chamath Palihapitiya says the AI complex has gotten so big that it now competes with US treasuries, so somebody is going to have to pay more.
  9. What Revenue Targets Did Anthropic Lay Out?Jason Calacanis says Anthropic's targets put revenue at 100 billion dollars, then 300 billion, and eventually 600 billion.
  10. Why Do Companies Block AI at Work?Jason Calacanis says Gallup still has frequent and daily AI use at work at about 10% and 20%.
  11. Why Did Google Lose $500 Billion?Jason Calacanis says Google lost about $500 billion of market cap on Thursday, falling 10 to 15 percent, after Q3 earnings missed search revenue for two…

People

More answers like this

More with Chamath Palihapitiya

More with Jason Calacanis

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Note

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.