When Does a Bull Market Hit Its Yearly High?

Josh Brown says the high of the year in a bull market lands in December or January almost all the time. When the S&P is up double digits through the midpoint of the year, there is like an 89% chance the high of the year takes place in December. The record covers 100 years, so he will not call the pattern science.

October turned volatile, matching the usual seasonal pattern, and the selling stayed selective. Semis fell 29 percent. Some big-name industrials fell 30 percent. The financials got killed over the past month. The Fed meeting is over, and a hike had to happen. Bond yields are backing off. Oil is not quite backing off, but it is not racing higher. Another Fed meeting comes next, then the midterms. Come Thanksgiving, people sit with portfolios up 15% and decide to buy. The biggest IPOs in history get priced along the way.

The setup resolves higher, in his view. The break is an exogenous shock that no one sees coming.