Smash Notes

Back to Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic, with Josh Brown.

Why Is Anthropic's $80.7 Billion Loss the Wrong Number?

Josh Brown says Anthropic's $80.7 billion headline loss is the wrong figure to fixate on. It comes from how Anthropic must report the financing of expenses, and it includes a $9 billion compute figure. He calls the accounting stupid. Money managers in New York focus on the operating loss: $693 million, down from $2.1 billion a year earlier.

Warren Buffett spent decades telling investors to focus on book value and said his job as chairman was to grow nominal book value per share. About eight or nine years ago he told them to throw the metric out, calling it the stupidest thing because of new accounting rules. When Berkshire Hathaway invests in plants and equipment or acquires something and the value drops, the company has to write the asset down, which hits book value. When the value later rises, the rules do not allow a write-up. Book value became almost nonsensical, so he shifted toward cash flow.

A bad Anthropic number should not be ignored just to stay constructive. The most bombastically negative figures are the ones that land on the news, and people react to headlines. The operating loss is the more important number.

Grokipedia·Anthropic·Josh Brown

Transcript

Josh Brown: If This Is A Bubble, It’s Pathetic ·

Prof G Markets

More from this episode

  1. How Fast Is Anthropic's Revenue Growing?Josh Brown says the revenue growth is what stood out in Anthropic's filing, even though leaks and comments from private investors had already pointed the same…
  2. Does Anthropic Have a Moat?Josh Brown does not think Anthropic has a moat like SpaceX, Nvidia, or Apple.
  3. How Much Has Anthropic Agreed to Spend on Compute?Ed Elson says Anthropic has already signed up to spend $800 billion, and those dollars are not on the income statement yet.
  4. What Is the Bear Case Against Anthropic?Scott Galloway says the bear case against Anthropic is that large companies will put a budget on AI use, and that frontier models have no real switching costs.
  5. What Did Josh Brown Make of the Anthropic S-1?Josh Brown wanted to hate the Anthropic S-1, but after reading it he recognized the numbers and stopped short of a full reversal.
  6. Why Does Josh Brown Think Anthropic Timed Its IPO Well?Josh Brown says Anthropic nailed the timing of its IPO.
  7. Why Does Josh Brown Say the AI Bubble Is Pathetic?Josh Brown says that if this is a bubble, it is the most pathetic one he has ever seen, and an anti-bubble.
  8. Who Benefits If the AI Neoclouds Fail?Josh Brown says a shakeout among neoclouds is good for the companies that already own compute.
  9. Will Anthropic Create Thousands of Multimillionaires?Josh Brown says Anthropic is going to create thousands of multimillionaire households.
  10. What Does Josh Brown Think Is Netflix's Biggest Problem?Josh Brown says Netflix's biggest problem is a comparison the company cannot do much about.
  11. When Does a Bull Market Hit Its Yearly High?Josh Brown says the high of the year in a bull market lands in December or January almost all the time.

People

More answers like this

More with Scott Galloway

More with Ed Elson

Related episodes

Plays from this note through the rest of the episode.

Weekly highlights

One letter a week.

The notes worth hearing, with the minute they were said.