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Back to A quiet investor’s $10 billion bet on AI, chips, and defense, with Alex Davis.

Why Did Alex Davis Double Down on Palantir Before Its IPO?

Alex Davis says Disruptive had been in Palantir for about 10 years when COVID arrived. While other people were sheltering in place, Palantir was planning to go public, which he took as a very Palantir way to think. A chance to bring in a couple of large investors, including a big insurance company, was the moment they doubled down. Holding a company for 10 years had not been the goal. At that moment, if he could write a check to anything, it was Palantir. He puts the company then at maybe $10 to $15 billion, and he does not want to be wrong on the figure. Looking back, he calls it a half-trillion-dollar company. They did not yet know the listing would be a direct listing. There was hardly a month or two or three in which they were not buying more.

Palantir had stayed closed off. The public had not spent time with Alex Karp. The way Karp built confidence inside the company, and among the people whose budgets Palantir was creating, is still the most unusual thing Davis has seen. A listing would put that same person on quarterly calls, blunt and straightforward. One fear was that great people would leave once the company was public. The bet was that Palantir was undervalued as a private company relative to where it would trade once Karp and that team won the public over. He thinks Karp has become one of the more iconic CEOs, and that he deserves it.

Transcript

A quiet investor’s $10 billion bet on AI, chips, and defense ·

Sources with Alex Heath

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  1. Why Raise a $10 Billion Fund When Valuations Look Frothy?Alex Heath asks why announce a $10 billion growth fund when valuations look frothy.
  2. Why Does Alex Davis Only Back Companies That Are Already Winning?Alex Davis says Disruptive was not built as a fee business by people who had left banking for venture.
  3. How Does a $10 Billion Fund Become Ten Checks?Alex Davis says the firm has already been writing some of the largest checks in growth-stage companies, especially over the last five or six years, after 15…
  4. Why Are Top Startups Blocking SPV Investors?Alex Heath asks why leave deal-by-deal vehicles, where limited partners could see each company, for a fund. Alex Davis says this is the first real fund.
  5. Why Invest More After a Startup's Valuation Goes Up?Alex Davis keeps the list of companies Disruptive wants to own. Sometimes it is 20 names, sometimes 15, and he holds the list. Names come on and off.
  6. What Is Alex Davis Building at Groq After the Nvidia Deal?Alex Heath describes an early investment in Groq, the inference-chip company, and a $20 billion licensing deal with Nvidia.
  7. Why Will Speculative Data-center Landlords Get Hurt?Alex Davis does not think there are too many neoclouds. He thinks there are not enough good ones.
  8. Will Defense Startups Become the New Prime Contractors?Alex Davis expects new prime contractors for the first time in 100 years, and a defense-tech market that does not look like the old one.
  9. Is Value Investing Dead?Alex Davis says the only thing he wrestles with before writing a check is regulatory, meaning whether a regulatory problem was a reason to pass.
  10. Why Does Alex Davis Wish He Had Backed Closed Models Harder?Alex Davis does not point to regrets in what Disruptive did. Fifteen years later he does know answers he did not have then.

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