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Back to A quiet investor’s $10 billion bet on AI, chips, and defense, with Alex Davis.

Why Will Speculative Data-center Landlords Get Hurt?

Alex Davis does not think there are too many neoclouds. He thinks there are not enough good ones. Alex Heath reads back a line Davis wrote: back owner-users, not speculative landlords, because this will not end well. Davis agrees. The people he means are projects that are not well funded, that take five years to build what should take two, or that hold a piece of land, a large family parcel in Texas is the example, without a real way to find customers or financing.

Memory prices have gone to about five times where they were two years ago, and they have doubled in the last year. That cost was not in the old math. Chips are then up about 15 percent each, and a newer chip is already the next question, so a buyer is choosing whether to purchase now or wait. Someone visiting the business, who is not current on changes that move daily, can put a lot of debt on the project and never end up with chips.

Transcript

A quiet investor’s $10 billion bet on AI, chips, and defense ·

Sources with Alex Heath

More from this episode

  1. Why Raise a $10 Billion Fund When Valuations Look Frothy?Alex Heath asks why announce a $10 billion growth fund when valuations look frothy.
  2. Why Does Alex Davis Only Back Companies That Are Already Winning?Alex Davis says Disruptive was not built as a fee business by people who had left banking for venture.
  3. How Does a $10 Billion Fund Become Ten Checks?Alex Davis says the firm has already been writing some of the largest checks in growth-stage companies, especially over the last five or six years, after 15…
  4. Why Are Top Startups Blocking SPV Investors?Alex Heath asks why leave deal-by-deal vehicles, where limited partners could see each company, for a fund. Alex Davis says this is the first real fund.
  5. Why Invest More After a Startup's Valuation Goes Up?Alex Davis keeps the list of companies Disruptive wants to own. Sometimes it is 20 names, sometimes 15, and he holds the list. Names come on and off.
  6. Why Did Alex Davis Double Down on Palantir Before Its IPO?Alex Davis says Disruptive had been in Palantir for about 10 years when COVID arrived.
  7. What Is Alex Davis Building at Groq After the Nvidia Deal?Alex Heath describes an early investment in Groq, the inference-chip company, and a $20 billion licensing deal with Nvidia.
  8. Will Defense Startups Become the New Prime Contractors?Alex Davis expects new prime contractors for the first time in 100 years, and a defense-tech market that does not look like the old one.
  9. Is Value Investing Dead?Alex Davis says the only thing he wrestles with before writing a check is regulatory, meaning whether a regulatory problem was a reason to pass.
  10. Why Does Alex Davis Wish He Had Backed Closed Models Harder?Alex Davis does not point to regrets in what Disruptive did. Fifteen years later he does know answers he did not have then.

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