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Back to Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate., with Paul Kedrosky & Azeem Azhar.

How Is Wall Street Loading Debt Onto Big Tech?

Ezra Klein asks whether broader society is protected because Alphabet, Meta, and the other major companies can absorb huge losses on their own balance sheets. He reads Mark Zuckerberg's line, that it would be sad to misspend hundreds of billions of dollars, as proof the spender can misspend hundreds of billions and still be fine. Ezra Klein then asks Paul Kedrosky, who has followed the private-credit side, whether the debt changes that.

Paul Kedrosky says broader society is not protected. A year ago, people told him to stop warning about the spending, because the companies are smart and have prodigious cash flows. A year later, the data shows spending moving away from cash flow and toward debt. The new line is that the balance sheets are still pristine and the credits are great.

Paul Kedrosky says Wall Street is very good at making a pristine balance sheet less pristine. It keeps raising money, again and again, because the fees are tremendous, and the credit rating declines as the borrowing grows. Oracle is already showing the decline. Microsoft is on the cusp, and so are some of the other hyperscalers. Paul Kedrosky says the cash cushion does not protect the wider economy once the buildout is financed with debt.

Transcript

Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate. ·

The Ezra Klein Show

More from this episode

  1. Is OpenAI and Anthropic's Chip Revenue Share Falling?Ezra Klein asks how AI demand looks once token use is separated from the chips that serve it.
  2. Would an OpenAI Collapse Pop the Economy?Azeem Azhar says Paul Kedrosky talked about frontier models and tokens, while he talked about capital spending and the GPUs, and that the two deserve separate…
  3. What Did Anthropic's Hiring Leak Reveal About Meta?Azeem Azhar says Anthropic accidentally leaked one of its largest customers.
  4. How Did Apple Gain by Skipping Frontier Models?Ezra Klein says Apple decided not to compete in making a frontier model, unlike Alphabet, Google, and Meta. OpenAI and Anthropic are AI companies.
  5. Why Is AI Repricing Cognitive Work?Paul Kedrosky says artificial intelligence is the fastest adopting technology in history, and its fundamental function is to reprice cognitive labor.
  6. How Likely Is a Backlash Against AI?Ezra Klein says discontinuous regulation is quite likely.
  7. How Few Jobs Does a Huge Data Center Create?Azeem Azhar says a huge data center may cost billions of dollars and still employ a handful of people.
  8. Which Books Do Paul Kedrosky and Azeem Azhar Recommend?Ezra Klein asks each guest for three books. Paul Kedrosky recommends Middlemarch, about normal people swept along as a technology revolution takes hold.

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